Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot… Crude, so close and yet so far.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Narrow ranging Monday continued to hold the maximum pullback limit that at least allows an accumulative pattern to form. But the behaving like an inside day does essentially require the rally to resume without much further delay if a deeper drop will be avoided.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday”s initial weakness still held the 1125.70 pullback limit. The gap back to Friday”s 1133.00 close was filled but not recovered, so resuming the rally Tuesday all but requires launching earlier.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday and Friday”s test of the 14.55 bounce limit held, still needing to fill the gap back down to last Wednesday”s 14.35 opening gap before a recovery would be credible for extending higher.
30-year Treasury DecContract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday”s early probe above 155-24 was the buy signal”s third attempt to trigger. It wasn”t the most substantial attempt, but its rejection was the most substantial reaction down, attacking last week”s 154-00 low. The decline is on the precipice of resuming if a rally isn”t underway through Tuesday”s close.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Coming to within 20 cents of my 37.55 target and then hovering sideways for the next session still does not qualify as accumulation. So, the three-day surge from there isn”t any more durable just because it has recovered $11, but that”s still difficult momentum to retrace. And now it has potential to test 50.10 before a substantial reaction down might form.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Sunday night and extending lower tested last week”s lows around 2.65 without closing lower. That could qualify as the basis for a durable bottom, leaving no unfinished business below if a rally were to begin Tuesday.
More to come?
Resuming this morning”s drop would target well under the overnight low.
This morning”s bias-down environment probed above the bias-down signal to 1976.25. After reacting down 10 points, and when the bias environment had become less influential, fresh highs were probed up to 1983.75. That was retraced before the noon, likely to trap buyers.
If it”s a trap, then it”s slow to snap. This afternoon”s 1973.75 bias-down signal didn”t trigger. Probing under it after 1:30 was too late to invalidate the no-bias that had signaled already. So, price is still hovering around 1973.75, probing 2 points either way around it.
The bias environment comes within view of lapsing at 2:15-2:20. Breaking under 1973.75 would be entirely credible for launching a new downleg — not just targeting fresh session lows, but a probe under the overnight lows as 1944.00”s attraction become threatening again. Otherwise, back above 1979.25-1980.75 could trigger a rally into Wednesday morning.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Sep 1 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Two reports are due simultaneously at 10:00 Tuesday. One is reliably influential to price action, which can enhance the other report”s effect in case of a surprise. The afternoon”s Fed speaker should influence price action, too.
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Eric Rosengren Speaks
1:10 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1985.25 | 1982.00 |
| …would target | 1989.25 | 1986.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1977.00 | 1973.75 |
| …would target | 1970.25 | 1967.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Satisfied sellers, impatient buyers.
Bias-down target met, held, reacted, and nearly retraced.
The open firmed just enough to pierce the pre-open recovery high by 2 ticks up to 1977.75. Then price reversed down sharply to 1962.25.
The 1963.25 bias-down signal had been met and it was holding as support at 10:15, so the bias-down signal did not renew. And as is often the case, the decline ceased.
And as is occasionally the case, the decline was retraced. The 1970.00 bias-down signal was probed to also test 1976.25. Recall from the First Trade blog post that recovering 1976.25 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility could have made bias-down obsolete. Instead, it was tested during a bias-down environment. And its resistance has reacted down.
Being a bias-down environment, probing back above the bias-down signal requires being retraced. Often, the 10:15 print is retraced, too — that”s 1966.25. In fact, a reaction down from 1976.25 is now probing under 1970.00 to within 2 ticks of 1966.25.
Back above 1972.00 would target fresh post-open highs at 1979.25 or 1980.75. Any higher would target 1996.00-2000.00. Otherwise, the attraction remains alive back down to Thursday”s 1944.00 low — and to support along the way at 1960.50 and 1953.50.