Posts by Rod David
Post-open review… Holding up, but holding out.
Probing overnight highs has yet to extend.
Regardless of whether the overnight rally were to resume immediately, or to pullback — and regardless of whether that pullback were shallow, medium or deep before resuming the rally — this morning”s bias environment was unlikely to trend down.
The open did immediately probe above the 1964.50 overnight high to 1969.25. Then it reacted down to test this morning”s 1956.50 bias-up target as support. Support held.
At least, so far. Overnight highs are being probed again, albeit still short of the open”s high. The renewed bias-up target is 1973.00, along the path to eventually test 1986.00, 1996.00 and 2000.00.
Back under 1960.00 would target 1949.00, although that would be more credible after the bias environment began lapsing.
The pullback eventually touched Monday”s
The pullback eventually touched Monday”s mid-day recovery highs around 1950. That”s the high of the three-day consolidation which last night”s rally is trying to leave behind. And it”s doing as much as possible, besides correcting back into the prior range, by also reacting back up aggressively.
Too bad. Greeting the open nearer to the dip”s low would have required the rally to resume quickly and aggressively, or else to fail. Instead, having bounced already, we don”t get the benefit of that clarity. A post-open dip could extend for 10 minutes and still resume the rally — or else dip even nearer to yesterday”s 1938 close before recovering.
Details and other markets coverage are in the pre-market Tour recorded here:
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The First Trade… Overnight rallies again.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Tuesday night”s rally up to 1923.00 was reversed into the noon hour”s 1875.00 low. Despite still probing fresh lows so late in the noon hour, it launched a recovery back to the open”s 1918.00 high. Buyers gained traction for their efforts by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour”s high and then entering the final hour above the bias environment”s high. The final hour extended higher to 1943.00.
Overnight action”s new info…
Initially firming up to 1950.00 was retraced down to 1935.00 ahead of Europe”s opens. That enabled an actual rally leg to extend up to 1964.50. Its reaction down is attacking 1955.00.
If, then…
If not rejected at Thursday”s open, then yesterday”s buyers will be rewarded with control of this morning”s bias environment. And if not rejected going into the afternoon”s bias environment, this morning”s rally would be likely to extend. The overnight rally could be retraced to only a slightly positive starting point before rallying back to its 1964.50 high, with potential for extending up to 1986.00, 1996.00 and 2000.00.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1950.00 would be likely also to trigger the 1948.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 1960.50 would be likely also to exceed the 1956.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 1947.00 would start to signal the 1948.50 bias-up signal won”t trigger.
Morning bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1952.25 | 1948.50 |
| …would target | 1960.25 | 1956.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 1935.75 | 1932.00 |
| …would target | 1924.75 | 1921.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Wednesday afternoon”s buyers gained traction
Wednesday afternoon”s buyers gained traction for their efforts. The bias environment was exited above the noon hour”s high and the final hour was entered above the bias environment”s high. That was at 1913, and then the balance of the session extended another 30 points higher.
Having trended up into Wednesday”s close, gapping down under the bias environment”s 1888 low (just over 50 points lower) would trigger a session-long decline. Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon”s sellers could be rewarded for the traction they gained.
If Thursday”s open isn”t rallying pretty quickly and aggressively like Wednesday”s open, then the rally won”t extend, like Wednesday”s pre-open rally. Trending during inside days lacks the credibility of a breakout. And a breakout from multiple inside days is now likely only to be temporary.
Details and other markets coverage are in the post-market Wrap recorded here:
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After 6:30 ET, use one of these links to monitor Globex action in the chaRTroom:
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