Posts by Rod David
The overnight rally has only
The overnight rally has only extended. It”s still short of Tuesday afternoon”s 1925 high, whose immediate recovery could form a session-long rally setup. But regardless of the opening print, reversing down should be develop pretty quickly and aggressively if a reversal down is valid. So, not quickly reversing down aggressively might be the earliest suggestion that the overnight rally is extending higher. Details on these setups and other markets coverage was discussed during the pre-market Tour recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrckjtc
CORRECTION: The chaRTroom”s XP-Friendly link
CORRECTION: The chaRTroom”s XP-Friendly link to Anymeeting was incorrect. It has since been corrected in the First Trade blog post, but you may also click here:
http://anymeeting.com/411-425-751
The First Trade…. Hope springs eternal.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Gapping up Tuesday followed pre-open news from China, which had followed an already gigantic overnight rally. But post-open action didn”t improve, and price ranged flat-to-lower until the afternoon”s bias environment had begun lapsing. Even then, there was a false break up above 1920.00 but it never exceeded its 3-minute high before a sell signal triggered under 1917.75. Confirmation from fresh session lows through 3:10-3:20 then extended down gigantically through the close, fulfilling its minimum objective to probe under Monday afternoon”s lows down to 1860.00. Tuesday”s sellers gained traction for their efforts, similar to Monday”s sellers, who have yet to be rewarded for their efforts.
Overnight action”s new info…
Fresh lows down to 1850.50 were recovered to eventually launch a rally that continues rising at this moment. The rally resumed after reactions down from 1904.00 and 1909.00. and now fresh highs are testing 1915.00.
If, then…
Partially retracing yesterday”s late plunge is normal for a correction. It wasn”t necessary before extending down. But anything under 1916.25 is still within the realm of a temporary correction. Regardless, the gap back to yesterday”s close will require being filled at some point. If not already attracting price down through this morning”s open, then a rally could have clear passage through tomorrow”s open.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1899.00 would be likely also to exit the bias timing window at 10:15 above the 1891.75 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 1878.50 would be unlikely even to trigger the 1880.75 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Morning bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 1884.50 | 1880.75 |
| …would target | 1895.50 | 1891.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 1866.25 | 1862.50 |
| …would target | 1854.00 | 1850.25 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Monday afternoon”s sellers had gained
Monday afternoon”s sellers had gained traction for their efforts, essentially dooming to failure the overnight rally unless Tuesday”s open could gap up above Monday afternoon”s high. The gap was close, but not maintained, and the balance of the session trended back down to Monday”s afternoon”s lows.
That”s not an uncommon setup, but the intraday 88-point slide is almost unprecedented. And Monday afternoon”s sellers have yet to be rewarded for their efforts.
Tuesday afternoon”s sellers also gained traction. Not decisively — needing the 3:10-3:20 proxy window, and already being pretty well rewarded by plunging another 50 points. But buyers certainly didn”t gain traction, so there”s no conflicting signals.
Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the post-market Wrap, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/wzjkckv
After 6:00, monitor Globex action in the chaRTroom at either link:
Win XP-Friendly — http://anymeeting.com/789-286-671
non-xp friendly — https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh