Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday’s opening relief rally reversed down 86-1/2 points from 2710.00 to 2623.00 into the final hour. Its reaction up to 2652.00 stopped just short of 2656.00, but only fell back down to 2631.00 and closed above 2626.00. Only above 2626.00. The next lower objective at October’s 2603.00 low wasn’t put into play, but the retest of Thanksgiving’s low wasn’t rejected. No hold-short setup was triggered, but the pattern is still at risk of extending down sharply without delay.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
JOIN US AT 9:30 AM ET FOR THIS WEEKEND’S SATURDAY REVIEW.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still fluctuating narrowly around 1.1.400 into the weekend has avoided confirming the buy signal triggered above 1.1370, but maintains potential to rally out of the weekend.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh highs above 1253.00 could be launching a new rally leg, albeit less aggressively than would be optimal, and needing a second consecutive higher close to confirm.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing out of the 12.45 test Friday retested the 12.65 buy signal up to prior highs, still needing at least one more higher close to confirm the signal, while still remaining vulnerable to resuming the decline.
30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already having fulfilled its minimum objective of a third higher close on Thursday, Friday’s payrolls was greeted from a position of strength. Which didn’t prevent reacting down or require a recovery, but may have limited the reaction down and still ensures a recovery.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still forming a bottom, Thursday’s fresh low was absorbed but Friday’s gap up was again premature and excessive optimism to launch a reliable rally leg.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Testing the 4.31 pullback limit overnight was recovered intraday back above 4.44 to attack 4.63 whose recovery would confirm the next rally leg underway.
Mid-day Update… Done, or down.
If sellers aren’t finished, then they’re just getting started.
This morning’s reversal of its post-o0pen relief rally has extended down to 2642.50. That tests the afternoon bias-down target by 2 ticks. The 2650.50 bias-down signal held through its grace period to trigger late no-bias.
But it’s still being tested. And this is a Friday. A late bias signal is already less reliable. Extending to fresh lows would likely target 2626.00. Which already held a test yesterday, so there’s no bullish reason to be revisiting it.
Extending lower probably requires participants to become impatient with not bouncing again into the close. Back above 2662.00 would start to signal that bounce underway. Until then — whether during or after this afternoon’s no-bias environment lapses — the pattern remains vulnerable to extending down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Dec 10, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s Jobs Openings report tends to influence price action all the more when the prior Friday’s Employment Situation report was a surprise, and especially if JOLTS contradicts it. Similarly, any knee-jerk reaction upon reinforcing Friday’s report would likely reverse.
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2668.00 | 2668.25 |
| …would target | 2679.50 | 2679.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2650.00 | 2650.50 |
| …would target | 2642.50 | 2643.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.