Posts by Rod David
Pre-close view… The rally quashes optimism.
Leaving unfinished business above.
This afternoon”s 2086.00 bias-up signal triggered. It was extended during the bias environment only to 2088.75, which had been tested already before the bias environment began.
And neither was the signal rejected upon exiting the bias environment. So, its 2091.00 bias-up target has become “unfinished business above” that requires an eventual test.
Meanwhile, the final hour has been sliding. Negative territory is being probed by 5 points to within 1 tick of 2077.00, taking RSIs oversold as the position-squaring window opens at 3:37. Closing back above 2080.50 would help to confirm the potential for extending higher next.
Daily Spot… Pullback day.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Thursday under 1.1120 was extended initially to attack 1.1075 to trying forming an Island Reversal setup. A recovery back above 1.1120 did avoid reversing momentum down.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday”s rally revised the pullback limit up to 1112.00, which was tested at Thursday”s open and essentially through the balance of the day. It must hold in order to maintain the rally”s momentum.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday”s pullback held its test of Tuesday”s “lower prior highs” at 15.30, maintaining the rally”s momentum.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Attacking the 158-08 pullback limit into Wednesday”s close was immediately extended at Thursday”s open. The session basically consolidated under 158-08 down to 157-14, whose break would have signaled the trend reversing down.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Without even threatening to recover, fresh lows have now pierced 42.00. The breakout close immediately follows an unconfirmed breakout close, which makes Friday less likely to close lower. But that”s not yet to be taken as bottoming, as the sequence can repeat indefinitely while price continues sliding.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s EIA report triggered a spike down through 2.88 to attack 2.83, which gradually weakened from there back through Tuesday”s prior low to test 2.77. Closing back above 2.83 would signal the rally had resumed.
Livestox, Aug 13 2015…Update.
Following are the stocks reviewed during Livestox, and their order:
MYHI
VAPE
GWPH
SRNA
OXIS
GWPH
INSY
TRTC
GPRO
BABA
CDE
TWTR
NFLX
AAPL
UGLD
GLD
USO
Good things come.
Starting to reward yesterday”s recovery.
Yesterday afternoon”s bias environment was exited at 2:30 above the noon hour”s high, and the final hour hour was entered above the bias environment”s high. Buyers gained traction for their efforts. Their usual reward for this setup is to extend through the next morning”s bias environment.
So long as the following open hasn”t rejected that traction, the morning may instead back-and-fill. But only that, and not trend down, delaying the reward until the afternoon.
So, this morning”s dip did hold multiple tests of 2075.25 support, while failing to trigger the 2077.75 bias-down signal. Ranging had narrowed in to 2079.25 when the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30. Trending that began then has extended higher relentlessly to now touch 2089.00.
2088.00 was this morning”s bias-up signal, so there is natural resistance around it. Regardless, this morning”s ~2083.00 “lower prior highs” should be tested for more than a moment — if at all — before resuming the rally to higher highs.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Aug 14 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday”s two high-profile econ reports each have reliable track records for influencing price action. And if the pre-open report triggers a decisive reaction, then the post-open report”s reaction is likely to be similar.
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET