Posts by Rod David
The First Trade… Back to business.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday”s 16-point gap down to 2064.00 extended sharply lower to 2046.50 through the morning”s bias timing window at 10:30. The balance of the session trended back up relentlessly, recovering into positive territory attacking 2085.00. The recovery gained traction for its efforts, although it left outstanding the potential for a pullback to 2075.25.
Overnight action”s new info…
The first attempt to probe higher touched 2086.00 where another Yuan devaluation triggered a mini-plunge that came within 3 ticks of the 2075.25 target. That recovered quickly, and eventually extended to fresh highs at 2093.00 ahead of Europe”s opens. Another slide probed a point back under Wednesday”s high to 2083.50, but that has recovered to 2091.00.
If, then…
Having gained traction yesterday, the recovery should extend during this morning”s bias environment — actually trending, and not just probing higher momentarily. Early weakness back into negative territory should recover, more so if delayed until the afternoon.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2091.00 would be likely to trigger the 2088.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2095.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2094.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2075.00 would be likely to trigger the 2077.75 bias-down signal.
Morning bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2093.00 | 2088.00 |
| …would target | 2099.75 | 2094.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2082.75 | 2077.75 |
| …would target | 2077.50 | 2072.50 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Wednesday”s last pullback targeting 2078
Wednesday”s last pullback targeting 2078 or 2075.25 barely pierced under 20880 before returning to the 2084.75 high. An overnight pullback anyway wouldn”t be surprising, or for the pullback to extend deeper (2073?). But a deeper overnight pullback will have to avoid recovery in order also to avoid trending higher Thursday morning. Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the post-market Tour recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/htpxmrr
After 6::30 ET, monitor overnight Globex action in the chaRTroom at:
Win XP-Friendly — http://anymeeting.com/795-377-964
non-xp friendly — https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy
Pre-close view… Sliding up the wall of worry.
Afternoon rally barely skips a beat.
The reaction down from attacking 2075.00 had room down to 2067.25 before threatening to close under 2062.75 which would put into play 2035.00. The pullback limit was attacked with 2 ticks to spare before resuming the afternoon”s rally.
Its 2078.00 objective was probed up to 2080.50 resistance, and room for its reaction down to 2076.50 was touched before resuming the rally again. Now 2085.00 has been attacked, and another pullback is underway targeting 2078.00 or 2075.25.
But not 2067.25 or 2062.75. The test of Friday”s range has held. Buyers already gained traction for their efforts — the bias environment exit was above the noon hour”s high and the final hour entry was above the bias environment”s high.
Their reward should be to trend higher through tomorrow morning”s bias environment, so long as the close isn”t under 2077.00 or 2073.00.
Daily Spot… Yuan good devaluation deserves another.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Reacting to Tuesday night”s Yuan sequel drove price sharply higher through Monday”s test of 1.1075 resistance and through 1.1120 resistance to test 1.1220. Closing above 1.1225 would target 1.1345, but a dip back to at least 1.1075 is likelier.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending higher Tuesday night and Wednesday probed Monday night”s 1119.00 high and closed higher, targeting 1144.00 so long as pullbacks now hold 1112.00 as support.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The rally resumed Wednesday by gapping up and extending to test 15.55. Now holding 15.25 would keep alive potential to 15.90.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Yuan”s devaluation triggered a new upleg overnight that peaked upon testing 160-20 resistance. It was retraced almost entirely before Wednesday”s open. But fresh highs back up to 159-28 still probed back into negative territory under 158-26.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Ranging at or under Sunday night”s 43.50 gap down through Wednesday has converted 44.25 into a preliminary buy signal.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday”s open gapped up to the 2.88 buy signal and extended a nickel higher, presumably confirming 2.83”s recovery that signaled a new upleg is forming. Gapping up isn”t optimal at this stage, but gets a benefit of the doubt..