Posts by Rod David
The First Trade… Yuance is never enough.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday”s gap up to 2086.00 had been retraced already overnight in reaction to the Yuan devaluation. Bouncing from 2080.50 through Tuesday”s open soon resolved back down to eventually test 2070.75. Bouncing through Tuesday afternoon came within 1 tick of its 2082.25 target, closing back above 2073.00-2077.00”s relevant support.
Overnight action”s new info…
Firming up to 2085.25 and ranging there narrowly for an hour suddenly plunged 17 points in reaction to more Yuan weakness. Probing under Tuesday”s low fell to 2067.25, which had narrowly avoided becoming targeted by Tuesday afternoon”s bias signal. Ranging down to 2065.00 eventually broke quite a bit lower to 2053.75. Its reaction is testing 2064.00 as resistance.
If, then…
Delaying the test of 2067.25 until Wednesday had made it likelier to be probed regardless of its resolution. Probing it overnight would still be able to recover through Wednesday”s open and form a more durable bottom. The minimum requirement to suggest sellers may be absorbed would be back above 2067.00-2070.00. But this still wouldn”t assure that another rally leg was ready to begin.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 back above 2069.50 would make the 2067.25 bias-down target”s recovery through 10:15 likely, too, to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2064.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2067.25 bias-down target in-time to avoid renewing the bias-down signal.
Morning bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2088.50 | 2083.00 |
| …would target | 2093.50 | 2088.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2078.50 | 2073.00 |
| …would target | 2072.75 | 2067.25 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Apparently, the Yuan is collapsing.
Apparently, the Yuan is collapsing. S&Ps had firmed up to 2085.25. Ranging there narrowly for an hour suddenly plunged 17 points to probe under today”s low down to 2067.25… This was the next lower target that breaking lower intraday would have satisfied. Now it”s being probed by 2 points. Satisfying the target overnight may be the only way to avoid extending into something durable. I”ll be adding further comments overnight in the chaRTroom at:
Win XP-Friendly — http://anymeeting.com/075-067-906
non-xp friendly — https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy
A lot of selling pressure
A lot of selling pressure had been expended already before Tuesday”s probe under 2077 and under 2073. Extending down any deeper Tuesday afternoon would have retraced Friday”s late break higher, and potentially launched another rally.
But waiting to extend the decline Wednesday morning now would find sellers less extended. Actually, Tuesday”s final hour bounced to within 1 tick of its 2082.25 target, essentially neutralizing the attraction above.
But Tuesday”s close did recover 2077. That could serve as an anchor to help recover from breaking under 2073 to test 2067 and potentially also 2060. Otherwise, gapping up Wednesday above 2088 if not also 2091 would put new highs back into play.
Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the Market Wrap, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/htpxjjb
After 6::30 ET, monitor overnight Globex action in the chaRTroom at:
Win XP-Friendly — http://anymeeting.com/075-067-906
non-xp friendly — https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy
Pre-close view…Holding on for dear life.
Did avoiding bias-down only delay a deeper down?
This afternoon”s 2073.00 bias-down signal was still being tested at 1:20 and 1:30 both to avoid triggering, and to avoid being rejected. The noN-bias environment ranged choppily sideways around 2073.00.
Then the bias environment started lapsing. But the drop didn”t resume, instead retracing up to 2077.00 into the final hour. Another couple of points have been added.
Closing above 2077.00 would position the market for the potential to isolate today”s decline, and to launch another recovery tomorrow. Closing under 2073.00 — or gapping down under 2073.00 tomorrow – would be likely instead to resume this morning decline to 2067.00.