Posts by Rod David
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2103.75 | 2098.25 |
| …would target | 2109.25 | 2104.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2096.25 | 2091.00 |
| …would target | 2091.75 | 2086.25 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Extremer sentiment.
Gapping up above resistance extended through more of it.
The pre-open push through 2088.00 had ranged back down to only 2086.00 at the open. Post-open buying was overwhelming, pushing price higher quickly to attack 2092.00. Extending higher since then has attacked 2095.00.
Gapping up and extending higher through 9:45, without reversing down by 10:15, all but ensures fresh highs before noon. Generally not simply probing higher, but actual trending with a complex structure of higher highs and higher lows.
Obviously, we haven”t even considered taking a sell signal. Meanwhile, near-term resistance at 2095.25-2095.75 has been touched. Reacting down would likely test 2089.50-2090.50 and still recover to fresh morning highs.
The nearest sell signal is under 2088.00, which I calculated simply to illustrate how much room there is for a dip before even threatening to reverse momentum down.
Remember that overnight rally attacking
Remember that overnight rally attacking 2081? And its complete recovery from a one-hour drop to 2074? Well, it extended even higher, even more aggressively, eventually touching 2089. If the bullish scenario requires maintaining a recovery above 2082.25, then this excess allows room to expend more selling pressure before it can break lower.
With one caveat… big resistance at 2088. It would be this morning”s renewed bias-up target if the 2082.25 bias-up target were exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. And it”s being tested by the weakest sponsorship, which is the overnight crowd that is looking for an exit.
We should know pretty quickly whether buyers are rejecting Friday”s probing under 2077, or if sellers have refueled to resume the downleg. Details and other markets coverage are in the pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/cxsthkf
The First Trade… I thnk I can, I think I can.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday”s open gapped under 2077.00 and probed under 2073.00 down to 2062.00. A late surge originated both too late and too early to be sponsored by strong hands. It managed to end at 2073.00, but not above it, let alone above 2077.00. If not for being a Friday, which can be noise, then the close would have put into play the next downleg.
Overnight action”s new info…
Sunday night”s open barely delayed extending higher, and eventually touched 2080.75. Europe”s opens changed the sentiment, launching a drop to 2074.00. It lasted just over an hour, and then took less time to recover almost entirely. An errant tick just touched 2081.00.
If, then…
2081.00 is about 2 points short of being the difference between refueling sellers, and trapping them. Exiting the weekend with extreme sentiment can often be a sentiment extreme. It”s difficult enough already for mid-week overnight rallies to bleed into the following session. Gapping open sharply on Mondays has a small window to attract new sponsorship. Meanwhile, just temporarily correcting Friday”s break under 2077.00 has resistance up to at least 2082.50 that must be recovered almost immediately, or else retrace the gap and then some.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above2080.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2077.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2084.25 would make the 2082.50 bias-up target likelier to be exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2073.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2082.50 | 2077.00 |
| …would target | 2087.75 | 2082.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2070.25 | 2064.75 |
| …would target | 2063.75 | 2058.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.