Posts by Rod David
Pre-close view… Going for three.
Two consecutive timing windows ranged relatively narrowly. They were choppy, but didn”t trend. Two often becomes three, so won”t be surprising if the range were to persist through the final hour.
Exiting the bias environment beyond the noon hour”s range could have signaled trending. Entering the final hour above the bias environment”s 2067.00 high and the noon hour”s 2068.00 high would still be credible for trying to gain traction.
In fact, 2067.00 is being probed now, attacking 2068.00. But remember that potential for two sideways ranges to become three? An attempt to break them in one direction can ricochet more substantially in the opposite direction.
Whichever direction the range does break, if at all, monitor confirmation from the 3:10-3:20 timing window extending to fresh afternoon extremes.
Daily Spot… Reacting to payrolls.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday”s knee-jerk reaction to the Employment Situation report spiked up through the 1.0920-1.0945 bounce limit to test 1.0980. Its retracement held above 1.0855 support, and then recovered to attack 1.0985. Closing above the bounce limit does undermine the decline”s momentum, which would be reinstated by closing back under it.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing intraday under both 1087.00 and 1083.00 Friday was recovered by a surge up to attack 1100.00, holding 1094.00 as support to make a more successful probe above 1100.00 easier.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging to attack 15.00 and holding a reaction down to 14.75 support makes a higher close Monday more credible for extending sharply higher intraday.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday”s Employment Situation report facilitated a test of the outstanding 158-08 target that attacked 158-16. Although no higher target is in-play, a pullback has room down to 157-08/157-20 before suggesting the rally”s momentum has peaked.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Having failed to bounce Thursday from fulfilling the 44.25 target, fresh lows were likely, which Friday fulfilled incidentally by ranging narrowly.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s EIA reaction had recovered from probing under 2.77 to test the 2.82 buy signal. Reacting back down to 2.77 Friday was recovered to attack 2.82. Confirming its recovery above 2.88 would be likely to trend sharply higher.
Getting too comfortable.
Hovering complacently at the lows isn”t strength.
This morning”s 2066.00 bias-down target was met along the way down to 2062.75. Sideways ranging since the morning”s bias environment began lapsing at 11:30 has persisted into the afternoon”s bias environment beginning at 1:20. All of which has been centered around 2066.00.
Touching this afternoon”s 2064.00 bias-down signal within 3 minutes of 1:20 invoked the grace period. A blip-down to fresh lows was recovered back to 2064.00 at 1:30, triggering noN-bias.
Not a bias-down targeting 2059.00. Not a no-bias likelier to bounce back up to 2073.00. But a noN-bias with no requirements. These tend to sit rather still for the hour, but that”s no reason to hold a short.
A better reason to at least monitor for a short-entry is that hovering complacently at the low of a downleg is not necessarily a sign of strength. Exiting the bias environment above the noon hour”s 2068.00 high would be the earliest indication of recovery potential.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Aug 10 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Mondays are often quiet, as are noon hours, both of which are livened up this week by a Fed speaker.
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Dennis Lockhart Speaks
12:25 PM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2078.50 | 2073.00 |
| …would target | 2083.75 | 2078.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2069.50 | 2064.00 |
| …would target | 2064.50 | 2059.00 |
| Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.