Posts by Rod David
The ending game.
Massive, steep slide is fulfilling downside objectives.
The mid-morning bounce from 2089.50 wasn”t shallow. But it was a bias-down environment, whose 2088.00 target remained outstanding. All of which would have been ignored back above 2098.00.
So, the bounce touched 2098.00, but never triggered it. A sell signal did trigger back under 2094.75-2095.50.
That has been quite productive on the way to sharply lower lows. The slide steepened into a Running Correction that overlapped 2088.00. It steepened again to new lows at 2082.50 and 2080.00. Oversold RSIs at the low will require its retest.
This afternoon”s bias-down signal was renewed by not recovering 2088.00 at 1:20. Its renewed bias-down target is essentially met, but still has room for noise down to 2077.00.
Regardless of the low”s required retest, or the potential below down to 2077.00, back above 2086.50 could start to reverse momentum back up.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Aug 4 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Monday”s misses by ISM and Construction suggest the same for Tuesday”s post-open Factory Orders. Its only surprise can be strength — as in, strong data, which would make Fed tightening likelier. Tuesday”s other reports aren”t influential.
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Unenthusiastic lack of enthusiasm.
Push lower runs out of sponsors, but isn”t reversed.
The open”s dive to 2091.25 was probed to 2089.50, after an interim bounce to 2097.50. The lower low not only recovered to the interim high, but also probed it up to 2098.00.
Like last night, price action is trading choppily and lower, but don”t blink or you”ll miss it.
And, also like last night, recovering fresh lows hasn”t equated to attracting fresh buyers.
So, this morning”s 2088.00 bias-down target becomes “unfinished business below” which requires an eventual test.
The bounce has reacted down more than 6 points to 2091.75. Back above 2096.500 would start opening the door to probing positive territory this afternoon. Probing, and and probably trending. Otherwise, the attraction to 2088.00 remains intact, now likelier to be probed as low as 2077.00.
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2106.00 | 2099.25 |
| …would target | 2112.25 | 2105.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2100.75 | 2094.00 |
| …would target | 2094.75 | 2088.00 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Not even a whiff of strength.
Early strength would have been credible. We”ll never know.
Opening at or under 2099.25 quickly extended down to the 2095.50 bias-down signal, and then spiked down under the overnight lows to 2091.25.
Reacting up to 2097.50 was retraced deeply enough to overlap the 2095.50 bias-down signal at 10:15, invoking the grace period. And 2095.50 broke lower through 10:30 to trigger late bias-down.
The 2088.00 bias-down target is in-play. Being a late signal makes the target a little more capable of holding its test, instead of extending down to 2084.00 and 2077.00.
Fresh lows are being probed down to 2089.50 while RSIs refuse to turn oversold. Expending so much selling pressure so quickly also improves the potential for the 2088.00 target”s test to recover. But the only credible buy signals are back above the bias-down signal, or else after fulfilling the bias-down target.