Posts by Rod David
The Universe, week of Aug 3 2015… Only the weak get weaker.
Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Links to ||
Last week”s Universe ||
Prior week”s Universe ||
Previous week”s Universe ||
This week”s issue of Barron”s magazine is out this morning. One of its weekly columns tackles an interesting subject. That is the broader market”s “breadth.” Whether comparing the number of issues rising to declining, the number of new highs vs. new lows, the percentages of stocks above and below various moving averages… the market is suffering from very bad breadth. (Get it? Bad breath, bad breadth?)
The columnist should look at the Cannabis sector. Or, not.
This has been the case for the broader market for some time. Which is one reason why I”ve been viewing it as forming a broader top. And a big reason why I urge everyone to learn about bearish index ETFs and short-selling.
But breadth is not a timing tool. Big turns don”t happen quickly. It”s the world”s largest game of Musical Chairs, and its players know how to stretch out each round. The broader market stays afloat through “rotation” among sectors, where fewer take on the mantle of leadership. Eventually, fewer components of fewer sectors are leadership, and the game ends on account of too few chairs remaining.
The Cannabis sector”s leadership has been to the downside. Not bigger cap stocks like CARA, GWPH and INSY, but smaller and microcaps. Their winners have been exceptions. And its winners at any given time have largely proved only to be temporary bounces.
Patience and stalking for our own bottoming candidates have continued doing well. The most recent was TRTC, which spent only two days at its sub-.09 target before beginning a one-week surge that doubled it. (and you know what I say about penny stocks that double, right?) The latest pattern to suggest it”s forming such a bottom is SRNA.
Last week”s major Cannabis sector revisions were few. Not just the percentages of stocks above or below 4-week moving averages, but also those closing under support. The majority of new lows have been among microcaps. Stability is not a buy signal. But there were even a couple of resistance recalculations to make. More of that would start being bullish.
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| Marijuana Stock Universe for August 3, 2015 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 7 | 6.86% |
| trends* | # flat: | 10 | 9.80% |
| # down: | 85 | 83.33% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| ACGX | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| AERO | 1.530 | 2.440 | down |
| AGTK | 0.000 | 0.009 | down |
| AMMJ | 0.125 | 0.272 | down |
| ARNA | 3.800 | 5.030 | down |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | down |
| AVTC | 0.000 | 0.400 | down |
| BLOZF | 0.130 | 0.340 | down |
| BLPG | 0.015 | 0.086 | down |
| BNRDF | 0.600 | 0.740 | flat |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.048 | down |
| BTFL | 0.071 | 0.232 | down |
| CAFS | 0.001 | 0.011 | down |
| CANL | 0.750 | 1.250 | down |
| CANN | 1.000 | 2.440 | down |
| CANV | 0.860 | 1.640 | down |
| CARA | 18.300 | 23.550 | up |
| CBDS | 1.830 | 5.630 | down |
| CBGI | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| CBIS | 0.015 | 0.029 | down |
| CGRW | 0.360 | 0.610 | flat |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.320 | 0.750 | down |
| DEWM | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| DIGP | 0.235 | 0.465 | down |
| DSCR | 0.000 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.005 | 0.011 | down |
| EDXC | 0.019 | 0.047 | down |
| ENCC (axxu) | n/a | n/a | down |
| ENDO | 0.006 | 0.018 | down |
| ENRT | 0.017 | 0.037 | down |
| ERBB | 0.002 | 0.004 | down |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | flat |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | up |
| FITX | 0.002 | 0.006 | down |
| FSPM | 0.000 | 0.250 | down |
| FULL | 3.060 | 3.660 | down |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| GBLX | 0.270 | 0.460 | flat |
| GRCU | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| GRNH | 0.023 | 0.067 | down |
| GWPH | 101.550 | 132.000 | flat |
| HEMP | 0.011 | 0.018 | down |
| ICBU | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.100 | 0.180 | down |
| INCC | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| INSY | 46.150 | 46.750 | up |
| ITNS | 0.003 | 0.007 | down |
| KAYS | 0.067 | 0.187 | flat |
| LATF | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| LXRP | 0.098 | 0.205 | flat |
| MCIG | 0.035 | 0.074 | down |
| MDBX | 0.073 | 0.130 | down |
| MDCN | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| MDRM | 0.016 | 0.051 | flat |
| MINE | 0.002 | 0.005 | down |
| MJMD | 0.000 | 0.015 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| MJNA | 0.041 | 0.055 | down |
| MNTR | 0.507 | 0.928 | down |
| MYEC | 0.012 | 0.027 | down |
| MYHI | 0.013 | 0.188 | down |
| NDEV | 0.016 | 0.053 | down |
| NMUS | 0.620 | 1.600 | down |
| NRTI | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| NTRR | 0.022 | 0.046 | down |
| OGRMF | 0.250 | 0.337 | down |
| OSLH | 0.001 | 0.005 | down |
| OXIS | 0.015 | 0.027 | down |
| PHOT | 0.010 | 0.030 | down |
| PLPL | 0.150 | 0.220 | down |
| PMCB | 0.080 | 0.129 | down |
| PNTV | 0.001 | 0.007 | down |
| PZOO | 0.005 | 0.013 | down |
| QEDN | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| REDG | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| RFMK | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.030 | 0.100 | down |
| SING | 0.005 | 0.012 | flat |
| SKTO | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| SPRWF | 0.107 | 0.165 | down |
| SRNA | 0.040 | 0.090 | down |
| STEV | 0.038 | 0.058 | down |
| TAUG | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| THCZ | 0.051 | 0.013 | down |
| TRTC | 0.135 | 0.235 | up |
| TURV | 0.710 | 1.11 | up |
| TWMJF | 1.420 | 1.860 | flat |
| UPOT | 0.150 | 0.550 | down |
| USEI | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| UTRM | 0.000 | 0.000 | down |
| VAPE | 0.315 | 0.470 | down |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.050 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.036 | 0.066 | up |
| VPCO (1:5) | 0.663 | 1.960 | down |
| VPOR | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| WDHR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| WOGI | 0.010 | 0.022 | up |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| XXII | 0.710 | 0.950 | down |
If you were a Saturday
If you were a Saturday Review, where would you be? That depends on what you”re looking for:
XP-Friendly: http://anymeeting.com/614-273-815
non-xp friendly: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy
When would you be there? At 9:30am ET.
Bigger picture discussion, your stock chart analysis requests… See you there!
Closing back above 2098 and
Closing back above 2098 and attacking 2101.50 suggests that Friday afternoon”s sellers didn”t accomplish anything. Only exiting the bias environment under the noon hour suggests they didn”t gain traction for their efforts. But no prior high or other relevant resistance was recovered to confirm.
So, assuming that sellers haven”t retaken control, Friday”s repeated tests of 2105.50 may have chipped away at the last of its resistance. Tested pre-open, post-open, and then through much of Friday”s mid-section, attacking it again should be able to slide easily above it — presumably overnight, for another gap up that actually does extend intraday.
We”ll discuss that setup and others during this weekend”s Saturday Review, along with reviewing your stock chart analysis requests. I”ll send you the link in the morning. Meanwhile, here”s Friday”s post-market Wrap recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/jrcbptr
Pre-close view… Mighty mo.
Sellers trying to gain traction after meeting target.
Having held or overlapped the morning”s 2105.50 bias-up signal through the bias environment”s exit, its 2098.00 objective became unfinished business below. Ranging around 2105.50 began collapsing through the noon hour before extending down to fresh session lows at 2096.50.
Ranging sideways attacked 2101.00 above, now returning back down to 2098.00 support. There”s no requirement to hold, or to bounce. But it”s not very bullish to still be consolidating at session lows for this long, entering the final hour.
The bias environment exit was under the noon hour”s low, but the final hour”s entry was within the noon hour”s range. Trending down to fresh lows by 3:20 would confirm sellers are gaining traction, but not otherwise. And having the luxury of consolidating just ticks above the low, it wouldn”t be very bearish not trend down as needed. Bouncing has touch resistance to overcome at 2101.50.
In whichever direction the pattern resolves, the position-squaring window at 3:37-3:52 could trend sharply.
Daily Spot… Big moves into the weekend.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having fulfilled the 1.1075 sell signal”s 1.0900 minimum objective Thursday, the pattern became vulnerable to a corrective bounce. Understatement. Gapping up Friday morning extended sharply higher to touch the same 1.1120 resistance that had contained this week”s earlier bounce. Reacting down retraced more than 61.8% of the bounce to test 1.0970 — deep enough to trigger a new buy signal above 1.1075, while also suggesting extending any deeper would target new lows. I”ll describe this setup more thoroughly during the post-market Wrap.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another test of 1083.00 down to 1080.00 Friday was recovered quickly back above 1078.00, and then sharply higher to test 1100.00. The recovery should be obvious Monday, or else back under 1078.00 and 1083.00 would launch a new downleg .
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging through 14.75 Friday morning didn”t extend, and was actually retraced again, although 14.75 was still being tested as support to keep the pattern vulnerable to recovery.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying Thursday to within 1 tick of the 155-16 target was followed by gapping up Friday and extending higher to attack the next higher target of 156-24 to within 3 ticks. Now the rally”s momentum remains intact so long as 155-16 holds as support.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Testing, retesting and re-retesting the 49.25 buy signal without breaking higher was reversed down sharply Friday afternoon to probe Monday”s low under 47.00. That also triggered the 48.25 sell signal, now targeting 44.25 if confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Monday.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
After ending Thursday at the 2.77-2.88 range”s lower-end, Friday extended down further to attack 2.70, where 2.77 would become a buy signal again.