Posts by Rod David
The Universe, week of Jul 27 2015… That was only bathwater.
Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Links to || Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||
There was a new low this week in the percentages of Cannabis stocks above their rolling 4-week moving averages. There was almost as many issues testing and overlapping supports as I have seen in any single week. By these metrics, it was a bad week for the sector…
…as a whole. But four interesting stories reveal that the sector continues to be diverse.
- TRTC, which has been targeting .09 since it was almost three times higher. It attacked its room for noise down to .077, and surged to attack .12.
- CARA, which became a double at this week”s high, from the last spot it we began considering its pullback as having ended and a new rally leg being underway.
- INSY, which extended to probe its next higher resistance at 43.50, without closing above it. The last similar setup launched a 15% pullback.
- And, of course, there”s GWPH. The ongoing topping pattern may finally be rolling over for its first meaningful correction in awhile. Confirmation is still needed.
Our strategy of focusing on individual setups instead of blanket holdings has made a lot of sense and protected a lot of dollars. And think twice about buying any stock in a downtrend (ongoing series of lower lows and lower lower highs) that hasn”t yet exhibited some sort of accumulation. Remember: New lows are not a buy signal! Just be sure not to become too attached to any single issue — not, yet.
Here”s this week”s levels:
| Marijuana Stock Universe for July 27, 2015 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 6 | 5.94% |
| trends* | # flat: | 10 | 9.90% |
| # down: | 85 | 84.16% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| ACGX | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| AERO | 1.530 | 2.440 | down |
| AGTK | 0.000 | 0.009 | down |
| AMMJ | 0.180 | 0.385 | down |
| ARNA | 3.800 | 5.030 | flat |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | down |
| AVTC | 0.000 | 0.400 | down |
| BLOZF | 0.130 | 0.340 | down |
| BLPG | 0.015 | 0.086 | down |
| BNRDF | 0.600 | 0.740 | flat |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.048 | down |
| BTFL | 0.071 | 0.232 | down |
| CAFS | 0.001 | 0.011 | down |
| CANL | 0.750 | 1.250 | down |
| CANN | 1.000 | 2.440 | down |
| CANV | 0.860 | 1.640 | down |
| CARA | 18.300 | 23.550 | up |
| CBDS | 1.830 | 5.630 | down |
| CBGI | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| CBIS | 0.015 | 0.029 | down |
| CGRW | 0.550 | 0.750 | flat |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.320 | 0.750 | down |
| DEWM | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| DIGP | 0.235 | 0.465 | down |
| DSCR | 0.000 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.005 | 0.011 | down |
| EDXC | 0.019 | 0.047 | down |
| ENCC (axxu) | n/a | n/a | down |
| ENDO | 0.006 | 0.018 | down |
| ENRT | 0.017 | 0.037 | down |
| ERBB | 0.002 | 0.004 | down |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | flat |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | up |
| FITX | 0.002 | 0.006 | down |
| FSPM | 0.000 | 0.250 | down |
| FULL | 3.060 | 3.660 | down |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| GBLX | 0.270 | 0.460 | flat |
| GRCU | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| GRNH | 0.023 | 0.067 | down |
| GWPH | 101.550 | 132.000 | flat |
| HEMP | 0.011 | 0.018 | down |
| ICBU | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.100 | 0.180 | down |
| INCC | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| INSY | 37.900 | 43.500 | up |
| ITNS | 0.003 | 0.007 | down |
| LATF | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| LXRP | 0.098 | 0.205 | flat |
| MCIG | 0.035 | 0.074 | down |
| MDBX | 0.073 | 0.130 | down |
| MDCN | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| MDRM | 0.016 | 0.051 | flat |
| MINE | 0.002 | 0.005 | down |
| MJMD | 0.000 | 0.015 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| MJNA | 0.041 | 0.055 | down |
| MNTR | 0.507 | 0.928 | down |
| MYEC | 0.012 | 0.027 | down |
| MYHI | 0.110 | 0.280 | down |
| NDEV | 0.016 | 0.053 | down |
| NMUS | 0.620 | 1.600 | down |
| NRTI | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| NTRR | 0.017 | 0.030 | down |
| OGRMF | 0.250 | 0.337 | down |
| OSLH | 0.001 | 0.005 | down |
| OXIS | 0.015 | 0.027 | down |
| PHOT | 0.010 | 0.030 | down |
| PLPL | 0.190 | 0.237 | down |
| PMCB | 0.080 | 0.129 | down |
| PNTV | 0.001 | 0.007 | down |
| PZOO | 0.005 | 0.013 | down |
| QEDN | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| REDG | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| RFMK | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.030 | 0.100 | down |
| SING | 0.005 | 0.012 | flat |
| SKTO | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| SPRWF | 0.107 | 0.165 | down |
| SRNA | 0.040 | 0.090 | down |
| STEV | 0.038 | 0.058 | down |
| TAUG | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| THCZ | 0.064 | 0.157 | down |
| TRTC | 0.086 | 0.116 | down |
| TURV | 0.710 | 1.11 | up |
| TWMJF | 1.420 | 1.860 | flat |
| UPOT | 0.150 | 0.550 | down |
| USEI | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| UTRM | 0.000 | 0.000 | down |
| VAPE | 0.315 | 0.470 | down |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.050 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.036 | 0.066 | up |
| VPCO (1:5) | 0.663 | 1.960 | down |
| VPOR | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| WDHR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| WOGI | 0.010 | 0.022 | up |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| XXII | 0.710 | 0.950 | down |
Saturday Review’s recording (for 7/25/15) … Is it, or isn’t it?
Will last week”s drop hold the measurements of a pullback, or add another downleg? This are but two of two major questions we addressed during this weekend”s Saturday Review. That”s right. There really aren”t any other major questions at this stage. Enjoy!
Following is the review”s accompanying chat:
07/25/2015 09:31:37 Mark Glezer: good
07/25/2015 09:31:39 Bill G: good
07/25/2015 09:31:41 Mark Glezer: gm
07/25/2015 09:31:57 charlie: hi0
07/25/2015 09:32:38 David B: good morning
07/25/2015 09:51:48 David B: closing under 2099.25 on being a friday would would be talking about a different pattern say if it was a second consective close on a thursday?
07/25/2015 09:52:42 David B: what i”m saying is a second consective close less revelant on a friday?
07/25/2015 10:01:36 Mark Glezer: don”t lower prior highs normally produce a bounce of significance ?
07/25/2015 10:02:09 David B: yes
07/25/2015 10:03:13 David B: what close would tell us new highs are off the table?
07/25/2015 10:06:49 David B: is that considered trend change?
07/25/2015 10:09:49 Mark Glezer: a trend change would be big meaning it would be defended against?
07/25/2015 10:12:21 David B: BIIB,AMGN
07/25/2015 10:27:14 David B: DIS,QCOM
07/25/2015 10:42:07 Mark Glezer: thx much
07/25/2015 10:42:12 David B: thanks
07/25/2015 10:42:26 charlie: tks
So, was this week just
So, was this week just a correction on the path to new highs? Last week week in Saturday Review we discussed that although a correction wasn”t necessary, there was potential to correct as deep as 2077, but a correction could be done before then. The market corrected, and it probed 8 points under 2077.
Join us at 9:30am ET for this morning”s Saturday Review. We”ll discuss this week”s potential, and review any of your stock chart analysis requests. Login here:
XP-Friendly: http://anymeeting.com/740-417-034
xp UN-friendly: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy
Morning bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2087.75 | 2081.00 |
| …would target | 2093.50 | 2087.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2078.25 | 2071.75 |
| …would target | 2071.75 | 2065.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Thursday”s close under 2099.25, put
Thursday”s close under 2099.25, put into play lower targets at 2077 and 2073. That leg could have been invalidated by gapping up sufficiently Friday, which it did not. Not for lack of trying, as overnight strength tested 2104. Surging from the opening tick would have been credible, but instead the open plunged.
The 2077 target was met during the afternoon”s bias environment on the way down to 2069.75. That overlapped the target”s room for noise down to 2073. In fact, six swings of varying degrees each overlapped 2073 as the afternoon ranged choppily sideways.
Testing both 2077 and 2073 the same day suggests a new leg is about to begin. The last such setup was at 2105.50/2103, but rather than reverse direction, it extended down at a steeper slope. If this next leg doesn”t reverse here, then it is extending at the same slope as Friday, to 2060 or 2051. Closing under 2077 Monday, and not overlapping it, would point sharply lower.
We”ll review the likely paths and their likely targets during this weekend”s Saturday Review. I”ll send its link in the morning. Meanwhile, following is Friday”s post-market Wrap which includes other markets coverage:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bwhjrys