Posts by Rod David
Post-open review… Rejection rejected.
Opening plunge has extended to fulfill half of the next lower target.
The pre-open slide from the overnight rally had extended down to 2095.50. The open plunged to 2091.25. A reaction up touched the 2096.25 bounce limit, refueling sellers for another plunge.
The 2093.25 bias-down signal was broken at 10:15 and is being probed to fresh lows down to 2087.00. The 2086.75 bias-down target is in-play, but having come within 3 ticks neutralizes it from becoming “unfinished business above” if left outstanding.
The remaining opportunities to reject yesterday”s close under 2099.25 aren”t only shrinking in number, but also in plausibility. Probing new multi-session lows ahead of the weekend isn”t often reversed coming out of it. The next lower objective at 2077.00.
The overnight bounce to 2104
The overnight bounce to 2104 has extended its pre-open reaction down to attack yesterday”s 2095.25 noon hour lows. That”s a lot of selling pressure to expend in that timing window to that extreme level. Attracting new sponsorship at the open to resume the rally would be very credible, but also very much required to quickly extend higher sharply. Otherwise, not recovering quickly would suggest that new sponsorship is being attracted to resume the decline. Regardless, this area is unlikely to contain price for much longer. Details and other coverage is in the pre-market Tour:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/htpmbjj
The First Trade… Treading shark-infested waters.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday morning”s rally neutralized it upside attraction by attacking 2111.00 to within 3 ticks. Without attracting new sponsorship, perhaps inhibited by Turkey firing on Syria, the recovery attempt was undone by a slide to 2095.00 into the noon hour. Similarly, a bounce to 2101.00 was reversed to fresh lows at 2091.50. Its reaction closed back at the noon hour”s low.
Overnight action”s new info…
Futures extended the last-minute recovery to settle at 2099.25. Flat-to-lower ranging began resolving up after Europe”s opens, extending to 2104.00.
If, then…
Closing under 2099.25 puts into play much lower objectives at 2077.00. That close is being challenged overnight, and has yet to be confirmed by a second consecutive lower close. It can still be rejected to foreclose upon the downside, and triggering a significant rally for having expended more selling pressure than is sustainable. Despite the decline having been so productive, its sponsorship by weak-hands is suggested by its impatience, with unfinished business left outstanding above. Even the strongest rally can be blind-sided and overwhelmed by surprises (it”s never “peace suddenly breaking out”). But the weekend”s impending illiquidity has a way of focusing the market on how firmly it believes earnings growth may be at risk. So, with buyers not gaining traction yesterday, gapping up sufficiently this morning is probably the only way to avoid extending the decline. By the same token, maintaining a sufficient gap up — or, at least, extending sufficiently higher through the open — should hardly look back before extending sharply higher this morning.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2105.50 would be likely to trigger the 2104.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2099.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2110.75 | 2104.00 |
| …would target | 2117.75 | 2111.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2100.00 | 2093.25 |
| …would target | 2093.50 | 2086.75 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Thursday morning”s buying pressure was
Thursday morning”s buying pressure was fulfilled to within 3 ticks of the bias objective. That probed above Wednesday afternoon”s high, as had Wednesday night”s rally. Neither of which reversed the trend up.
Buyers tried again to gain traction Thursday afternoon, exiting the bias environment above the noon hour”s high. But that was rendered moot when sellers tried gaining traction by entering the final hour under the noon hour”s low. The 3:10-3:20 window didn”t so much confirm, as it just didn”t disagree — the window didn”t trend down, but it held under all prior intraday lows.
So, rejecting the decline Friday will require gapping up, essentially above Thursday morning”s 2111 high. Any shallower strength, or immediate weakness, would be likelier to extend the decline. Just closing under 2099.25 has put into play 2077, and rejecting it through Friday”s open would likely trend sharply higher intraday.
Details and other market coverage were discussed during the post-market Wrap:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/vsxwvxm
Overnight chaRTroom links to monitor the price action:
XP-Friendly: http://anymeeting.com/822-914-266
xp UN-friendly: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy