Posts by Rod David
Earnings inhibition again?
Despite triggering bias-down and lower targets being in-play, yesterday afternoon”s action ranged choppily flat-to-higher. It ended at its most optimistic ahead of AAPL”s post-close earnings, squeezing through the afternoon”s prior high.
That only fattened it up for the kill, the reaction to AAPL”s warning.
Today”s earnings calendar is very busy, too. Optimism isn”t likely to repeat ahead of the post-close headlines. Pessimism is one alternative, and so is ranging sideways, which has been the pattern since before the noon hour.
Fresh lows remain possible, but not in-play nor required — nor the product of strong hands. Exiting the bias environment above or below 2103.75-2108.00 would start an effort to gain traction in that direction. But no break is required.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jul 23 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Thursday”s calendar is busy, but it”s only influential report is the post-open LEI. Claims no longer makes an impact, and the Chicago Fed or Kansas City Fed never did — although all are high-profile. Meanwhile, AMZN and SBUX announce quarterly earnings.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2117.75 | 2111.00 |
| …would target | 2124.25 | 2117.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2111.50 | 2104.75 |
| …would target | 2106.00 | 2099.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… But does it have legs?
Open”s surge establishes higher targets, then retraces.
At 10:15, no-bias triggered. Offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters was put into play — 2115.00 and 2120.25 — so, a “synthetic bias-up.”
So, this post-open dip down to 2105.50 isn”t (yet) bearish. Breaking under 2109.00 by 10:30 would have invalidated the bias signal, but it was broken 1 minute after 10:30.
And having probed a fresh high after 10:15 up to 2112.00, rejecting the bias signal would require exiting the bias environment at 11:30 at fresh post-open lows under 2103.00.
Breaking under 2109.00 had near-term potential to 2105.50. RSI diverged positively upon touching it, and its touch has reacted up sharply — now violating its 2107.00 bounce limit, and probing its 2108.25 buy signal up to 2109.00. Exiting the bias environment in rally mode could extend sharply higher by the close.
Room for noise under 2105.25
Room for noise under 2105.25 down to 2103 has been tested. And retested. And now also re-retested, with each interim bounce attacking 2105.50. Digging even deeper pre-open (now touching 2102.50) doesn”t make the post-open any likelier to extend down this morning But if not already recovering through the opening 15 minutes of volatility, if not intending to recover this morning, then the next lower objective is 2099.25. And then a lot lower under there. Here”s more detail in the pre-market Tour, and then links into the live chaRTroom:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbkhpcx
XP-Friendly: http://anymeeting.com/999-264-785
xp UN-friendly: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy