Posts by Rod David
Probing yesterday”s high ahead of
Probing yesterday”s high ahead of this morning”s open still can”t be taken for granted as marginalizing sellers. This is expiration, so extending higher intraday depends greatly on sellers not taking control of the open. Even the most bullish resolution would still allow an interim dip this morning. Avoiding that dip should keep the rally intact into and out of the weekend. Details and other markets coverage were discussed during the pre-market Tour, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tyfzvkp
The First Trade… Pre-expiration headlock.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday”s 2113.50 open had gapped up 9-12 points from Wednesday”s closes, above all of the week-long upleg”s prior intraday highs. The session extended higher through the close to touch 2118.50. Buyers barely avoided gaining traction for their efforts.
Overnight action”s new info…
Narrow, sideways ranging has been twice touched Thursday morning”s 2115.00 high while attacking its 2118.50 afternoon high to within 1 tick. The highs are being attacked again, now.
If, then…
This being expiration and, of course, a Friday, several signals and setups are working. The bullish WedEX is their main filter. Its inversion to bearish would start becoming likely if the opening 15 minutes of volatility were to trend down, and/or if the open were to gap under yesterday afternoon”s 2113.00 low. Otherwise, the the afternoon”s bullish WedEX influence remains likely, even if this morning”s bias-down were the only bearish setup triggered. Meanwhile, let the the narrow overnight range lull you into complacency — expiration”s open can begin trending from a standing stop.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2121.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2119.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2111.75 would be likely to trigger the 2112.75 bias-down.
Morning bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2126.50 | 2119.75 |
| …would target | 2134.00 | 2127.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2119.50 | 2112.75 |
| …would target | 2112.25 | 2105.50 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Thursday”s gap up trended up
Thursday”s gap up trended up into the close, touching fresh highs at 2118.50. The rally barely avoided gaining traction for its effort — avoided it by just enough not to rely on trending up Friday morning, and to take seriously a gap down under the afternoon”s 2113 low.
Gapping down under 2113 would also form a session-long decline. And being expiration, trending down through the entire opening 15 minutes of volatility would foreshadow trending down throughout the day. Either or both of these conditions would undermine the bullish WedEX that expects an upward bias Friday afternoon.
So, initially attempting to form either bearish setup would be expected to fail. Similarly, forming either bearish setup would invert the bullish WedEX. And remember the bigger picture pattern targeting new highs? Don”t get me started…
Actually, we discussed all of that in detail during the post-market Wrap, along with other markets coverage, recorded here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shwpzxy
Overnight chaRTroom links are below:
XP-Friendly: https://www.anymeeting.com/656-913-831
xp UN-friendly: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/shkphyy
Pre-close view… Not backing down.
Bias environment exit is probing fresh highs.
This afternoon”s no-bias environment was essentially a no-volatility environment, too, barely piercing above the 2113.00-2115.00 2-point range.
A 2-point spike up coincided at 2:30 when the bias environment began lapsing. That has eked out slightly higher and higher highs up to 2117.25, but its reactions down continue overlapping the noon hour”s 2116.00-2116.50 highs.
That”s the definition of flat-to-higher. And it threatens to fulfill the third higher close required by Monday”s confirmed breakout.
So, closing positive today would open the door to a flat-to-lower morning tomorrow. Nothing too dramatic, as the window for a correction essentially closed Thursday morning. And the door remains open to simply extending the rally Friday morning, instead of waiting for the afternoon”s bullish WedEX influence.
There”s always a path down. Friday”s path down would invert the bullish WedEX. It would also likely begin by gapping down under Thursday afternoon”s 2113.00 low, and probably also trend down through the opening 15 minutes. Regardless, the ultimate objective remains new highs.