Posts by Rod David
Morning bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2114.50 | 2107.25 |
| …would target | 2118.00 | 2111.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2105.25 | 2098.25 |
| …would target | 2100.50 | 2093.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close view… Revolving trap door.
Vulnerability to retracing reappears.
The late-morning touch of 2107.75 barely pierced the overnight high. Another 3 ticks higher would have been optimal for reacting down. The bias-up signal had not been triggered nor was it touched. Trending down would be difficult without first stretching the rubber band higher.
The passage of time has had a similar effect. Ranging narrowly between 2102.00-2105.00 through the noon hour wasn”t unusual. Actually narrowing the range through the bias environment was unusual. Its exit plunged 9 points to 2095.00.
The drop had potential down to 2097.50, which is clearly fulfilled. Oversold RSIs at the low make a premature recovery attempt suspicious — including the current bounce back up to 2099.00.
Until the low is retested, the bounce could reach 2101.00 before suggesting the rally has resumed. Meanwhile, testing fresh lows and recovering back above 2097.50 would start to signal momentum reversing up.
Daily Spot… Absorbing Yellen.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The drop extended through Wednesday”s open to fill the gap back down to last Tuesday”s actual 1.0935 open. Already trying to firm or to bounce is impatient optimism, and not likely to end the decline — although closing back above 1.1000 would be credible for reversing momentum up.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows Wednesday morning probed 1144.00 support, with potential for extending down to 1137.00 so long as bounces hold 1151.00 as resistance. Closing above 1158.50 would signal the decline”s momentum had lapsed and was probably also reversing back up.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A fresh reaction low Wednesday morning extended down to test 15.00 as support, which should be the maximum consequence to having tried prematurely to recover 15.35-15.45 resistance. Closing under 14.90 would suggest a deeper pullback underway.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying on Yellen”s testimony without yet probing a fresh low left only 150-24 resistance as a buy signal. It was tested Wednesday to 150-30, and closing back under 150-08 would signal fresh lows in-play to at least 149-08.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sideways ranging became flat-to-lower ranging Wednesday. Instead of launching a rally, at least a fresh low targeting 48.00 has become increasingly likely.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday”s pre-open rally was already neutralizing the attraction back up to Tuesday”s 2.91 gap up. The balance of the session ranged narrowly at the high, not rejecting the filled gap — greeting Thursday”s EIA report from a position of strength.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jul 16 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Thursday is day-two of Fed Chair Yellen”s semi-annual two-day Humphrey-Hawkins testimony, the Senate portion. A similar reaction to Wednedsay”s House testimony would be unusual. More often, the market has discounted her comments, and her comments are unlikely to change. So, look for reversals if markets were to extend any further on her repeating those comments — after an initial knee-jerk reaction.
John Williams Speaks — dove
Wed 6:00 PM ET
**ECB Policy Statement / press conference
7:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
10:00 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
**Janet Yellen Speaks — dove
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2112.50 | 2105.50 |
| …would target | 2116.25 | 2109.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2106.00 | 2099.25 |
| …would target | 2102.00 | 2095.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.