Posts by Rod David
Pre-close view… Inverting the inversion?
Stunning reversal opportunity now forming.
This afternoon”s 2045.00 bis-down target was met. And it was probed down to 2043.50. Now every intraday timing window has probed its prior timing window. Usually, there is one exception. Is it the final hour?
A buy signal that triggered back above 2048.00 has extended up to 2052.50. That”s the afternoon bias environment”s high. Trending up above it through the 3:10-3:20 timing window (now underway) would be vulnerable to a massive short-squeeze.
Otherwise, there is no requirement to resume declining. Back under 2048.00 might try, if only to retest oversold RSIs at the 2043.50 low.
Livestox, Jul 9 2015
Livestox began as usual by reviewing the broader market. We also discussed Gold, which trying to bottom at my longstanding target. We also discussed Crude Oil, which has reached a fork in the road for either rallying sharply or else extending to new lows. We also discussed the following stocks in this order:
MDBX — .145 pullback limit to maintain potential for recovering .215 to target .345
VAPE — .34 pullback limit to maintain potential for extending to .47
OSLH – Waiting out .0022 recovery to help confirm that attack on the lows has held
TRTC — Rolling over again to potentially fulfill my longstanding .09-handle target
GWPH — Could fall of its own weight now that support has broken, bu volume is weak
NFLX — Abve 688 could probe one more new high at 745, but under 640 would trigger a head & shoulders top
BABA — Bonces to either 80.10 or 83.55 should resolve dwn to resume the decline
GPRO — Room down to 47 before considering a new downleg is underway
AAPL — Testing critical 122.25 support whose break would invalidate my longstanding 140 target
FEYE — Held its 46.25 pullback limit Tuesday and gapping up throgh its 48.75 resistance today
CARA — Prefer that pullbacks hold 11.80 while extending the current raly that is targeting 13.65 and 14.10
Daily Spot… Bonds reach a ceiling, while Natty Gas sets a floor.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday continued reacting down from Wednesday”s attack on the 1.1120 bounce limit, back to what had been the low”s 1.1000 bounce limit. At least a retest of Tuesday”s 1.0935 opening gap is required, potentially resuming the decline.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday night”s reaction down from the 1163.00 buy signal was recovered to gap up Thursday, but only to overlap 1163.00 and to avoid triggering it. The signal remains valid, along with Thursday”s 1167.00 high.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending the bounce into Thursday morning tested 15.35-15.45 resistance. One more shallow corrective dip should recover to launch a rally if the bottoming pattern”s timing remains valid.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sliding Thursday into and out of the noon hour”s auction tested the pullback”s minimum 151-28 pullback limit. Probing under it to at least 151-16 was deep enough that closing back above 151-28 would suggest the pullback had ended, so the eventual third higher close above 154-14 could be produced.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The recent decline could not extend any deeper than Tuesday”s test of 50.40-50.55 while still being considered potentially only a temporary correction. Wednesday did not extend lower, and Thursday tested Wednesday”s 53.00 highs Back above 54.30 would be credible for launching a rally, or else new lows will become likely.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
.Thursday”s EIA report was not greeted from a position of strength, as Wednesday”s fresh low close confirmed Tuesday”s breakout, requiring at least a third eventual lower close. The open”s firming was reversed down sharply on the news to test 2.64, but that recovered back above the morning”s high to test 2.73. This is a “pivot reversal” setup that often extends the reversal up immediately, or immediately after retesting its low. Closing lower would indicate a much more substantial decline is underway.
Inversion therapy.
Session-long rally setup is inverted, for at least awhile.
Entering the morning”s bias environment at 10:15 above 2058.00 maintained a benefit of the doubt for the session-long rally setup. That had formed by exiting the open at 9:45 above 2058.00.
A less influential level at 2063.75 was still being overlapped at 9:45 to undermine the 2058.00 recovery. Then 2058.00 was touched into 10:15 to jeopardize it. All of which could have been recovered. But the bias environment lapsed from 11:30-noon as a break under 2058.00 extended down to 2054.00.
The session-long rally had inverted. And now this afternoon”s 2051.00 bias-down signal has triggered.
A bounce just touched 2052.50. Oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs at the 2048.00 low require its retest, along with the 2045.00 bias-down target.
Only one timing window of a session-long setup doesn”t probe the prior timing window”s extreme. Only one candidate remains, the session”s final hour. Overbought RSIs at the open”s 2068.00 high will require eventual retest, so that would be the objective if a rally were to get underway. Otherwise, without a counter-trend window, there is potential to fresh lows under 2035.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jul 10 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday”s big economic events aren”t reports, but speakers, including the chief — both doves.
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
*Eric Rosengren Speaks
11:30 AM ET
**Janet Yellen Speaks
12:00 PM ET