Posts by Rod David
The Universe, week of Jun 29 2015… Cannabis stock fever — it’s catching on!
Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Links to || Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||
“If two trees fall in bed together in a Canadian forest…” How to explain this week”s combination between two Cannabis sector stocks, Bedrocan (BNRDF, BED.v) and Tweed (TWMJF, TWD.v). The press reported on it, helping to fuel the reactions in both stocks.If the market perceived the deal”s benefits to go beyond the two companies, then others in the sector would start trading at a premium. But the deal”s exclusively Canadian aspect never crossed the border to generate enthusiasm among US-based equities.
“Oh, how the might are fallin”.” So, what”s the Cannabis fever that”s catching on?
Think in terms of GWPH and INSY. “Awesome,” one might say. “They”ve become monster-sized!” Well, true. But the monsters seem to be retiring for the night. INSY”s 42.30 resistance was met Tuesday, barely pierced by a quarter, before plunging 20% through Thursday. And GWPH touched my longstanding 132.00 target Wednesday, then pierced it momentarily Thursday before plunging Friday to 124.00. I suspect that the selling pressure in either stock exceeded the total selling pressure in all Cannabis stocks for the past year. GWPH and INSY may have become infected for awhile.
“If all the trees in a forest fall but no one”s watching…” None of the above moves happened in a vacuum.
GWPH and INSY”s targets were calculated, and their patterns were reflecting thinner sponsorship. I happed to be asked about BNRDF several days before its deal, and said this about its chart “I do like the volume pattern, and would find any follow-through to be credible for reversing the trend back up.” Many other sector components continue behaving very predictably; unfortunately, their behavior continues to predict further declines. But there are always exceptions.
“The more things stay the same…” There was no net change in this week”s percentages of stocks above and below their rolling 4-week moving averages.
This doesn”t reflect that an unusual number of stocks required calculating lower supports. Two that are testing their previously calculated support are MDBX down to .014 and TAUG down to .004. Frankly — and this isn”t my first time saying this — I”ve been bearish both for a long, long time. In fact, MDBX”s patterns projected to zero when it was trading in the teens. But they”ve reached levels having potential for steep corrective bounces.
TRTC has only attacked my longstanding target in the 9-cent range. But the pattern of its premature bounce suggests that a fresh low will be vulnerable to a bigger bounce.
I want your feedback. Here”s this week”s coverage. I”m currently reviewing it for updating the format. Please take a moment this week to email me with any requests,
| Marijuana Stock Universe for June 29 2015 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 10 | 9.90% |
| trends* | # flat: | 17 | 16.83% |
| # down: | 74 | 73.27% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| ACGX | 0.000 | 0.003 | flat |
| AERO | 2.310 | 4.030 | down |
| AGTK | 0.008 | 0.022 | down |
| AMMJ | 0.180 | 0.385 | down |
| ARNA | 3.800 | 5.030 | flat |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | down |
| AVTC | 0.000 | 0.400 | down |
| BLOZF | 0.130 | 0.340 | down |
| BLPG | 0.044 | 0.102 | down |
| BNRDF | 0.600 | 0.740 | flat |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.048 | down |
| BTFL | 0.071 | 0.232 | down |
| CAFS | 0.005 | 0.030 | down |
| CANL | 0.750 | 1.250 | down |
| CANN | 1.690 | 4.600 | down |
| CANV | 0.860 | 1.640 | down |
| CARA | 11.375 | 12.750 | up |
| CBDS | 1.830 | 5.630 | down |
| CBGI | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| CBIS | 0.015 | 0.029 | down |
| CGRW | 0.550 | 0.750 | up |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.320 | 0.750 | flat |
| DEWM | 0.001 | 0.003 | flat |
| DIGPD | 0.235 | 0.465 | down |
| DSCR | 0.000 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.008 | 0.015 | flat |
| EDXC | 0.019 | 0.047 | down |
| ENCC (axxu) | 0.037 | 0.140 | down |
| ENDO | 0.016 | 0.025 | up |
| ENRT | 0.017 | 0.037 | down |
| ERBB | 0.003 | 0.007 | down |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | flat |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | up |
| FITX | 0.002 | 0.006 | down |
| FSPM | 0.000 | 0.250 | down |
| FULL | 3.360 | 4.140 | flat |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| GBLX | 0.270 | 0.460 | up |
| GRCU | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| GRNH | 0.023 | 0.067 | down |
| GWPH | 101.550 | 132.000 | up |
| HEMP | 0.011 | 0.018 | down |
| ICBU | 0.002 | 0.011 | down |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.100 | 0.180 | down |
| INCC | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| INSY | 32.450 | 39.600 | up |
| ITNS | 0.003 | 0.007 | down |
| LATF | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| LXRP | 0.098 | 0.022 | flat |
| MCIG | 0.035 | 0.074 | down |
| MDBX | 0.140 | 0.290 | down |
| MDCN | 0.005 | 0.022 | down |
| MDRM | 0.032 | 0.061 | up |
| MINE | 0.002 | 0.005 | down |
| MJMD | 0.000 | 0.015 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| MJNA | 0.063 | 0.080 | flat |
| MNTR | 0.507 | 0.928 | down |
| MYEC | 0.012 | 0.027 | down |
| MYHI | 0.110 | 0.280 | flat |
| NDEV | 0.040 | 0.165 | down |
| NMUS | 1.220 | 3.200 | down |
| NRTI | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| NTRR | 0.017 | 0.030 | down |
| OGRMF | 0.304 | 0.615 | down |
| OSLH | 0.001 | 0.005 | down |
| OXIS | 0.023 | 0.033 | down |
| PHOT | 0.019 | 0.065 | down |
| PLPL | 0.220 | 0.315 | flat |
| PMCB | 0.110 | 0.163 | down |
| PNTV | n/a | n/a | down |
| PZOO | 0.005 | 0.013 | flat |
| QEDN | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| REDG | 0.000 | 0.003 | flat |
| RFMK | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.069 | 0.266 | down |
| SING | 0.008 | 0.016 | flat |
| SKTO | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| SPRWF | 0.141 | 0.230 | down |
| SRNA | 0.040 | 0.090 | down |
| STEV | 0.038 | 0.058 | down |
| TAUG | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| THCZ | 0.064 | 0.157 | down |
| TRTC | 0.090 | 0.180 | down |
| TURV | 0.710 | 1.11 | up |
| TWMJF | 1.420 | 1.860 | flat |
| UPOT | 0.150 | 0.550 | down |
| USEI | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| UTRM | 0.000 | 0.000 | down |
| VAPE | 0.315 | 0.470 | down |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.050 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.036 | 0.066 | up |
| VPCO | 0.300 | 0.480 | down |
| VPOR | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| WDHR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| WOGI | 0.002 | 0.007 | down |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| XXII | 0.820 | 1.160 | flat |
Join us in the morning
Join us in the morning at 9:30am ET for this weekend”s Saturday review. We”ll discuss the bigger picture, and game out possible opening strategies for Sunday night and Monday morning. Login here up to an hour before it”s start:
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Friday”s fresh lows left no unfinished business below. Contextual timing signals were fulfilled, 1-minute RSI managed to diverge positively, and the 2087.25 bias-down target held its test. But the 2092.75 bias-down signal wasn”t recovered until after entering the final hour, and it was still being tested into the close. Sellers didn”t gain traction, but shorts weren”t trapped. Gapping in either direction Monday is likely to trend, assuming the extreme sentiment avoids becoming a sentiment extreme.
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Here”s the link to Friday”s post-market Wrap:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/htpjmxr
Morning bias
.
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2107.50 | 2099.25 |
| …would target | 2113.50 | 2105.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2096.75 | 2088.75 |
| …would target | 2090.50 | 2082.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Pre-close view… Ending on an optimistic note?
Fresh lows probed until the very last possible minute.
The afternoon”s 2087.25 bias-down target was met by 1:20, and wasn”t exceeded. Sellers were neither patient nor overwhelming. That didn”t preclude extending down further, since it was still a bias-down environment. But it prevented a bounce from exceeding its 2092.75 bias-down signal.
In fact, 2087.25 was probed momentarily by 1 point before bouncing to 2094.00. Ranging sideways into the final hour then surged to 2096.25.
It”s a little late on a Friday for fresh afternoon highs to produce another downleg. It”s also getting a little late for buyers to gain traction. So long as 2092.00 holds as support, extending higher should test this morning”s 2098.50-2099.25 preliminary levels.
Sellers gained no traction for today”s efforts, since the bias environment was exited within the noon hour”s range and the final hour was entered within the bias environment”s range. The downward influences were ultimately satisfied, albeit at their last possible moments. But the lows weren”t rejected in time to rely on trending back up next week, or absorbing another break lower.
REMINDER: This weekend”s Saturday Review will begin at 9:30am ET. There is no review next week due to the holiday..
Daily Spot… Bond bounce bids buh-bye.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The narrow consolidation didn”t bounce any higher — let alone up to 1.1250-1.1275 — before trying to resume the decline Friday. Tuesday”s 1.1146 prior low was tested as support through the afternoon, undermining whether the decline has resumed, which is difficult after so shallow of a corrective bounce.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows before and after Friday”s open down to 1167.00 didn”t prevent bouncing back into positive territory through the afternoon. But the decline”s momentum remains intact.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Friday probed fresh lows down to 15.45 but recovered back to the ~15.75 open and above the week”s prior lows, undermining the break”s momentum.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday”s gap down through 148-20 extended down sharply intraday to fresh lows at 147-11. So long as 147-30 holds as resistance and Monday closes negative to confirm Friday”s breakout, the next lower objective in-play is 146-04.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows overnight gapped down Friday to test 58.75 before reversing back up into positive territory. Closing back above 60.30 would start to signal momentum reversing up, still needing confirmation above 61.20.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage to Aug which trades at a 1-cent premium from Jul] Friday”s gap down to 2.78 as support reacted up to Thursday”s 2.82 open. A fresh low intraday struggled to recover 2.78 into the close. Closing above would signal a new rally leg underway 2.84.