Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2939.25 | 2942.00 |
| …would target | 2945.50 | 2948.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2930.25 | 2933.25 |
| …would target | 2922.75 | 2925.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday night’s 2908.50-2914.00 sideways range tried breaking higher 60-90 minutes before the open. Had the breakout maintained or extended, then it likely would have been false. But it self-corrected pre-open, making almost any renewed buying pressure likelier to extend. Which it did, fulfilling its 2926.50-2928.00 objective before the bias environment began lapsing. And then extending to attack 2940.00 into the noon hour.
Despite triggering bias-up, there was no afternoon momentum either way. The balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways between 2934.50-2938.00. The 2942.75 bias-up target becomes “unfinished business.” And regardless of the afternoon’s hesitation, the session formed a breakout from a multi-session range, still needing a second consecutive higher close Wednesday to confirm.
Meanwhile, S&P Cash came within 4-5 points of its ~2841 Sep 21 high. Futures were trading at a 5-6 point premium, now equivalent to 2646.00-2647.00. There’s no reason for the market to have come this close without intending to probe higher, although the path there is never assured. Sentiment is like an iron, and currently its optimism is hot. Expect the rally to strike it, unless a more powerful pessimistic sentiment heats up for whatever reason.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s attack on the 1.1320 buy signal stopped short of touching it, just before duplicating Thursday’s gap down and collapse on Tuesday. Opening under 1.1300 and extending down intraday to fresh lows at 1.1245 could Double-Bottom by closing back above 1.1300. The buy signal can be lowered Thursday.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Retesting Thursday’s modest fresh low before Tuesday’s open could only tolerate a brief and shallow dip if the near-term 1289.00 buy signal remained valid. A post-open collapse to fresh lows at 1268.00 disqualified the pullback from being shallow, although its complete retracement did qualify the dip as brief. The buy signal is lowered to 1279.50.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Teasing at the 15.00 buy signal without yet triggering left the pattern vulnerable to joining Gold’s fresh lows. Which was done by Tuesday’s post-open collapse to 14.70. The buy signal can be lowered to 14.93. But more important to a recovery is not to confirm Tuesday’s break with a second consecutive lower close on Wednesday.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s narrowly ranging inside day is neither informative nor predictive, so it doesn’t undermine the outstanding lower target in-play at 145-24.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Slightly higher highs up to 66.20 before Tuesday’s open was retraced to within a nickel of the 66.55 sell signal defined before the open. Its reaction up extended to fresh highs at 66.60, still targeting 67.15. And being a second consecutive close from a multi-session range, at least an eventual third higher close is now likely.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s gap up was rejected by Tuesday’s open collapsing to fresh lows. Meanwhile, the fresh lows fulfill the requirement that was created by having probed fresh lows into the weekend. Now a buy signal can be considered if triggered back above 2.53.
Mid-day Update… Above and beyond.
Extreme target met, exceeded, and then some.
Having managed the pre-open breakout attempts above 2914.75 to restrain optimism, any early rally attempt was likely to extend. 
And any rally attempt not rejected would target the 2926.50-2928.00 room for noise above.
That became official by renewing the bias-up signal above its 2920.25 bias-up target at 10:15. It was tested before coming within view of the bias environment lapsing. And it was probed up to 2932.00 as the bias environment began lapsing. On the way to attacking 2940.00 soon after noon.
Its reaction down stopped 1 tick short of rejecting the afternoon’s 2935.00 bias-up signal, which was triggered. Its 2942.75 bias-up target is in-play. It would become “unfinished business” if left outstanding, unless the bias environment were exited under its 2927.25 bias-up signal.
We’ll review the bigger picture during the Market Wrap, specifically the retest of Sep-Oct highs and the potential for new highs to be reversed aggressively.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Apr 24, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Neither of Wednesday’s econ report is either high-profile or influential to price action. The EIA report greets the crude oil market when its massive inverted Head & Shoulders pattern’s target area is being met.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET