Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot… Energies hit the gas pedal.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having retraced Friday”s plunge entirely Monday, Tuesday was more free to back-and-fill before extending higher. The morning”s dip was recovered to attack 1.1300 as had Monday”s session.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite having held the test of 1175.00 resistance Monday, higher highs overnight tested 1183.50 resistance. Tuesday”s intraday action slid back to 1175.00 support.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday”s session remained under pressure despite Gold”s strength. Bouncing back into the decline”s 16.15-16.35 target area is still possible.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh lows Tuesday attacked 148-10 support to within 1 tick before bouncing back to the decline”s original 149-08 target.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Despite gapping down Monday back under the 58.75 sell signal, thereby rejecting Friday”s late surge that had recovered it, higher highs overnight extended Tuesday above Friday”s late high to test 60.30 resistance. This is not at all in-line with reinstating the sell signal. Closing above 60.80 would start to signal a bigger rally underway.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Triggering the 2.67 buy signal Monday didn”t delay extending to the 2.83 target Tuesday morning. The second consecutive higher close confirmed the breakout, so that an eventual third higher close is now in-play.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jun 10 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Wednesday”s econ reports aren”t influential to price action. But the noon hour”s 10-year note auction is greeting a market that has been in decline recently. That will likely inhibit price action before the news, if not undermine rallying. A successful auction would then likely trigger a relief rally.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Quarterly Services Survey
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Not enough, not yet.
Recovering the open”s slide is less than half the battle.
The 2070.25 bias-down target was never actually touched. So, a probe under overnight lows down to 2067.50 was never in-play. Having attacked 2070.25 to within 3 ticks prevented it from becoming “unfinished business below” when left outstanding as the bias environment lapsed.
Speaking of which. The bias environment lapsed around 2080.00-2082.00 — more at the lower-end than upper. And that”s not optimal for trapping the open”s sellers, forcing them to help fuel further recovery.
Back above 2082.00 would still be credible for extending the recovery into positive territory, as would triggering the 2083.75 bias-up signal. “Compensating for the delay” would suggest a steep and substantial rally, probably into tomorrow morning.
It”s getting late for any more “backing-and-filling” that still recovers. Back under 2078.50 would start to signal the recovery had failed, and a much deeper downleg is underway.
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2085.00 | 2083.75 |
| …would target | 2090.25 | 2089.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2077.00 | 2076.00 |
| …would target | 2071.50 | 2070.25 |
| Signal status: NOn-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Sliding back up the cliff?
Pre-open bounce refueled sellers.
The pre-open bounce extended to 2080.00. It immediately improved another 2 points post-open, but was being reversed 10 minutes later. That reversal extended to within 4 ticks of the bias-down target.
A 6-point bounce was reversed to within 2 ticks of the 2070.25 bias-down target, which is close enough to neutralize its attraction. So, although the 2075.50 bias-down signal triggered after invoking its grace period, the bias-down target won”t become “unfinished business below” if not actually touched by 11:30.
Just touching the 2070.25 bias-down target would be likely also to probe the overnight lows down to 2067.50. But, what if 2070.25 isn”t actually touched?
Back above 2076.00 (being tested now by a 7-point bounce) would start to signal momentum reversing up already. Although it”s not the optimal recovery path, exiting the bias environment at 11:30 above 2082.00 and higher would be credible for reversing intraday momentum up.
Otherwise, back under 2074.25 would start to signal the 7-point bounce had failed, targeting new session lows at 2067.50.