Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot… L’Euro hot.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Favorably resolving Friday”s consolidation of the morning”s plunge was likely to almost literally explode higher. Monday”s open did gap up to 1.1175, and the session extended sharply higher to attack 1.1300, more than fully retracing Friday”s plunge. At least an eventual higher close above 1.1320 remains outstanding.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing overnight and into Monday”s open 1175.00 resistance. It was neither extended nor rejected intraday, keeping alive the decline”s minimum 1158.50 target.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Very shallow strength early Monday was retraced to a fresh low as the session was spent ranging narrowly sideways under the decline”s 16.15-16.35 target.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having retested the decline”s 148-25 target Friday, without closing lower, the pattern remains conflicted by the downtrend being satisfied, but no accumulation yet indicated.
Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday”s late surge back above the 58.75 sell signal was rejected by Monday”s gap down back to 58.75. But the balance of the morning only ranged narrowly around 58.75 before extending down under 58.00 to reinstate the signal”s momentum.
Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Monday to the 2.67 buy signal left no unfinished business below because Friday”s narrow ranging had not created any new low which might otherwise require being retested. Closing above 2.67 would still need a second consecutive higher close to confirm a rally leg has launched, and all prior to closing back under 2.64.
The end is near?
Ratcheting is now trending.
Trending has been relegated recently to between timing windows. This tactic has allowed sellers to gain ground while preserving much of their energy.
So, it”s interesting that the noon hour”s timing window has actually trended. And that trending has met a relevant test at 2081.25. So, the energy preservation tactic is being abandoned, just as selling pressure is being fulfilled.
Also, RSIs are diverging positively during the 2081.25 test,= down to 2080.50.
However…
This afternoon”s 2083.50 bias-down signal did just trigger. Its 2078.75 bias-down target is now in-play. Recovering 2083.50 through 1:30 would invalidate the signal. So would recovering 2083.50 through 1:30, if there were no interim fresh low.
In any case, back above 2083.50 would start to suggest momentum is reversing up. But that momentum meanwhile remains pointed down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jun 9 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Tuesday”s job openings report does have a track record of influencing price action, as it can reinforce or undermine the prior Friday”s Employment Situation report.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
9:00 AM ET
JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2091.25 | 2089.75 |
| …would target | 1096.25 | 2095.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2084.75 | 2083.50 |
| …would target | 2080.25 | 2078.75 |
| Signal status: waiting for trigger | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Raising pullback limits in FEYE
Raising pullback limits in FEYE and SIVB as their rallies extend:
FEYE — Now up 20% from its last buy signal, and testing 51.45 resistance. This requires pullbacks to hold 48.95 to maintain the rally”s momentum, targeting 60.60
SIVB — Has come a long way since first covering it around 117.50. New highs are within 1 point of the 144.25 target area. Now its pullbacks must hold 137.50 to maintain the rally”s momentum. It will be interesting to see whether attacking its target finds similar buying pressure being fulfilled in the Tech sector.