Posts by Rod David
Thanks to a very recent
Thanks to a very recent 3-point surge, overnight flat-to-higher ranging has recovered back up to within 3 ticks of yesterday”s last-minute test of 2122.50 support. The steep trajectory seems promising — and the market always keeps its promises, right? Right? Right. Not resuming and extending this last-minute optimism through the opening 5 minutes would make me suspect that the next 10 minutes trend back down. Maintaining the recovery above 2122.50 through 9:45 would be credible for extending higher this morning. Here”s the pre-market Tour recording for more detail:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/xmjxwvh
The First Trade…. Found another hole.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
The air is thin up here. Wednesday”s opening drop bottomed upon neutralizing “unfinished business below” at
2119.25. Consolidation through the noon hour finally surged to 2132.25 in reaction to FOMC Minutes. The likely 5-point correction doubled, ending the day back at 2122.50 support.
Overnight action”s new info…
Holding
2122.50 through Wednesday”s close didn”t prevent extending through it into the Globex open, which tumbled to 2115.00. Flat-to-higher ranging reached 2120.00 ahead of Europe”s opens. A 3-point pullback has now recovered to attack 2121.00.
If, then…
Wednesday”s probe above the two prior sessions” highs originated from under their interim low. The probe was retraced entirely, back down to what had been the interim low. Avoiding a lower close didn”t prevent extending down, 7-1/2 points. Isolating that to overnight action would keep alive potential for attacking or probing the highs Thursday. But gapping up to reject Wednesday”s close does seem to be off the table. Meanwhile, participation will begin evaporating as the three-day weekend draws nearer. This environment enables a sudden, steep trending — and not necessarily in one direction or the other.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above
2122.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2119.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2117.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Wednesday”s close at 2122.50 support
Wednesday”s close at 2122.50 support didn”t hesitate extending through it. At 2119.25 the drop steepened to 2115. That was basically Globex”s opening action. Flat-to-higher ranging since then has been testing 2119 as resistance. You can monitor it overnight in the chaRTroom:
XP-Friendly: http://anymeeting.com/037-590-410
non-XP ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Morning bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2131.00 | 2128.00 |
| …would target | 2136.00 | 2133.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2122.25 | 2119.25 |
| …would target | 2117.25 | 2114.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Tack on another bearish development,
Tack on another bearish development, in three ways.
Wednesday”s probe above the two prior sessions” highs was retraced to close back under them. Such obvious distributive behavior is already a warning. All the more so, with it developing in the 2128-2133 target area.
None of which is a sell signal, but the timing makes this warning particularly dangerous. The coming three-day holiday weekend means participation is thinning, and reversing down could collapse. Wednesday”s close held 2122.50, whose break would have signaled momentum reversing down already.
Momentum may still reverse down — Wednesday”s late drop to support hasn”t been rejected. Overbought RSIs at Wednesday”s 2132.25 high suggest it will be tested first. Probing the target area again Thursday would be vulnerable to collapsing into the afternoon.
Here”s more detail in the post-market Wrap recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/cxwvyzb
[Overnight chaRTroom links will be posted later.]