Posts by Rod David
Pre-close view… Teasing at the lows.
No traction, some action.
The bias environment”s 2:30 exit around 2093.50 was at the noon hour range”s lower-end. The final hour”s entry was similar. Sellers didn”t gain traction for their effort. And not that it matters at this stage for traction, but the 3:10-3:20 timing window wasn”t much different.
That doesn”t preclude lower lows, but it makes them unlikely to endure. Meanwhile, there remains vulnerability down to 2088.0-2090.00. And as late as it is, probing lower and recovering should be done in the blink of an eye.
It”s too late for a lower close to require extending down tomorrow. And current price action doesn”t suggest any attempt at closing high enough to justify a hold-long.
Daily Spot… Gold goes gonzo.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Surging Wednesday morning was already anticipated to be the only credible path higher, the objective being to retest the last rally leg”s 1.1380 target. It was tested at session highs, and a fresh high Thursday above 1.1400 would be vulnerable to reversing back down intraday.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite Tuesday”s bounce holding 1194.50 resistance, An overnight rally surged through 1201.50 to begin signaling a bigger rally leg underway targeting 1232.00, and already testing 1218.00. A second consecutive higher close would confirm, but only closing back under 1208.50 would undermine the upward momentum. Closing under 1197.00 would signal new lows in the 1160”s in-play instead.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging Wednesday through the 16.50-16.65 resistance range extended sharply higher intraday to attack 17.25, with potential to 18.05.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying through Wednesday”s open exceeded the 154-16 likely bounce limit up to 155-04. But an intraday reaction down and extended to 152-11. The shock-to-the system that needed to be absorbed now has another shock needing absorption. A narrow intraday range is likely.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday”s bounce had signaled the pullback limit”s test held, which Wednesday”s extension higher tried to confirm. But retesting the original rally”s 62.75 target was reversed back into negative territory. Its recovery Thursday would target 70.00.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday”s extension was confirmed by Wednesday”s higher close. At least an eventual third higher close is now required.
Livestox, May 13 2015
Wednesday”s Livestox covered the broader market, which still has potential to new highs, and then reviewed Oil and Gold The following stocks were covered in the following order:
ISI
MDBX
TPIV
OXIS
ATTBF
IMGN
FEYE
GTLS
AAPL
GILD
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu May 14 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Thursday”s Produce Price Index has a reliable track record for influencing price action. So does the afternoon”s 30-year auction, albeit more so for inhibiting volatility before the bids are announced.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2106.50 | 2102.25 |
| …would target | 2111.75 | 2107.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2097.75 | 2093.50 |
| …would target | 2092.25 | 2088.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.