Posts by Rod David
Pre-close view… Second chance.
Bias environment exit looking for traction.
The bias environment exit at 2:30 was above the noon hour”s high. This is bullish. But it is in a vacuum, and meaningless without confirmation. Its confirmation would have been entering the final hour above the bias environment”s high, but the final hour entry dipped.
There is a proxy, the 3:10-3:20 window. Remaining within the range wouldn”t be predictive either way. However…
Trending up to a fresh session high above 2100.75 would signal what the final hour”s entry did not, that buyers had gained traction.
The proxy window can cut either way. Trending down under the bias environment”s 2093.25 high through 3:10-3:20 could extend back into the open”s range at 2083.00.
Ending today under yesterday”s 2101.00 cash session close equivalent would keep the burden of proof on buyers that today was just a corrective dip.
Pushing like its life depends on it.
Because it does.
Exiting the open above 2091.25 would have marginalized sellers. Probing it and reversing back under 2088.00 would have marginalized buyers. Since 2091.25 wasn”t quite touched before reversing back under 2088.00, the plunge to 2080.25 couldn”t marginalize buyers.
Exiting the morning”s bias environment above 2096.00 would have marginalized sellers. Rejecting its test back under 2091.25 into the noon hour would have marginalized buyers. But reacting down from testing 2096.00 entered the noon hour above 2091.25. Still no marginalizing.
Still no traction, either. So, this session remains vulnerable to wide fluctuation.
Now a dip under 2096.00 has been isolated to the afternoon”s bias environment — entering and exiting the window above it, with an interim dip below it. Its recovery has extended to a fresh session high testing 2099.50.
That”s another relevant level, and so we start again…
Having touched 2099.50, entering the final hour under it would still be vulnerable to reversing down. Otherwise, the potential for a short-squeeze is high.
Daily Spot… Gold getting tired of its range?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Tuesday.and ranging sideways avoided confirming Monday”s break. It also corrected the dip from last week”s target. If Wednesday doesn”t accelerate Tuesday”s recovery attempt, then it”s probably because the decline has resumed
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
A pre-open spike up from testing 1182.70 tested the range”s 1194.50 upper-end, which held as resistance Tuesday. It also created a new sell signal at 1187.00, whose break would be confirmed under 1182.70.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday”s bounce extended throughout 16.50-16.65 resistance, stopping just short of even beginning to signal that momentum was reversing up.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday night”s retest of last week”s 153-00 low extended down to 151-16. RSIs diverged positively on its retest down to 151-04, launching a 3-point rally. RSIs diverged negatively while RSIs tested and retested 154-04 resistance. A pullback holding 153-08 could resume the rally, but it wouldn”t be very credible so quickly at this stage of the pattern.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
.Two days of testing the 58.65 pullback limit tried resolving up Tuesday morning, testing 60.65. Closing higher Wednesday would confirm a new rally leg underway with potential to 70.00.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s dip to 2.80 avoided dipping any lower into a pullback, and resolved by gapping up Tuesday and extending to fresh highs at 2.93. Closing above 2.95 would confirm the 3.06 prior high”s test is in-play. Back under 2.85 would offer one last chance for a pullback targeting 2.63-2.67.
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2106.50 | 2101.50 |
| …would target | 2112.25 | 2107.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2092.75 | 2088.00 |
| …would target | 2088.00 | 2083.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Back to square-one.
Yesterday”s late low being retested as resistance.
The pre-open probe above 2088.00 stopped short of touching 2091.25. So, pre-open buyers stopped short of trapping themselves. That”s not necessarily bullish, but it prevented buyer from being marginalized.
Back under 2088.00 triggered a drop that touched uptrending support from overnight lows at 2080.25. That”s where the selling ended, and when — with the opening 15 minutes of volatility, and not a moment later. It was as bearish as possible without gaining traction for its effort. Sellers weren”t marginalized.
A bounce back to 2088.00 repeatedly pierced under 2083.00, chipping away at its support without actually breaking lower. That effort ended with a surge to fresh session highs, testing the 2096.00 overnight lows.
Exiting the bias environment any higher would give the recovery traction, targeting 2100.00-2101.00 and potentially new highs. Exiting the bias environment back under 2088.00 would isolate the probe above 2091.25 and give the decline traction, targeting fresh session lows, and lower.