Posts by Rod David
The market chart is available
The market chart is available overnight at the following links:
Mitel/ilinc: https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/bfyytsh
Anymeeting: http://anymeeting.com/051-387-553
I began pointing out on
I began pointing out on Monday different price action that was starting to tell us intraday volatility was heating up. Multiple, wide intraday trending, with reversals. It hasn”t taken long to see the market become all about that. This hasn”t affected the market”s behavior abiding by its ongoing principles. It magnifies those principles into outsized moves. Their substantial reversals don”t measure any differently than under other conditions — they just have more room to extend.
Less volatile times offer the opportunity to get comfortable with the principles, so that they can be applied more naturally during times like this. Times like this can still be instructive, for their outsized moves making the influences and consequences clearer. Please don”t hesitate to ask any questions that can help you to better understand and to utilize the principles. You”re welcome just to monitor for signals, if that”s more helpful.
Thursday”s low fulfilled the extended downleg”s 2070 target. Its reaction up to 2083 fulfilled the target of buying pressure that had formed off the low. So long as the bounce doesn”t extend much higher overnight, oversold RSIs at Thursday”s low should be tested next — where the question would be whether sellers are done, or if we”re trending down sharply into and out of the weekend. Gapping up high enough could still put new highs into play.
Here”s The post-close Wrap recording.
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/zvsvyky
Pre-close view… Well-timed break.
Fresh lows as the bias environment lapses.
Actually, the afternoon”s 2085.00 bias-down signal was probed when the bias environment”s 2:30 lapse came into view 10-15 minutes prior. A drop to 2080.25 has been consolidating, and now it”s probing lower.
Entering the final hour back above 2085.00 would have been bullish. That”s unlikely now.
The next lower objectives are 2077.00 and 2070.00-2072.00.
Popping up through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would be credible for extending sharply higher into the 3:37 position-squaring window. But only temporarily. And meanwhile, the trend remains down.
Daily Spot… Natural Gas bottom becoming obvious too soon?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Holding 1.1160-1.1195 resistance Wednesday didn”t prevent probing higher overnight to test 1.1255. The probe reacted down, but spent the day ranging choppily around 1.1195. A bearish Pivot Reversal setup was avoided, but back under 1.1120 would still signal a pullback or something more substantial underway targeting 1.0855.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Closing under 1205.00-1208.50 Thursday targeted at least 1194.50, but there was no respite in Thursday”s drop that extended down relentlessly to within $2 of last week”s 1174.10 low. The original 1170.00-1174.00 target area is in-play so long as bounces meanwhile hold 1183.00 or at least 1187.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Hovering at the 16.50-16.65 resistance range”s upper-end was corrected Thursday by plunging to 15.80. Its recovery was testing 16.15, but not decisively recovering it to signal the decline had necessarily ended.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday”s drop down to 158-08 was recovered to test Wednesday”s 158-22 low as resistance, well under what was critical support at 159-14/159-26. Avoiding a decisive second consecutive lower close could still extend down, but I would be careful being long above 160-00.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 59.31 target tested at Wednesday”s high was pierced momentarily overnight and then intraday Thursday. Just avoiding a close back under 57.70 keeps the door open to a fresh high close that can still signal at least 61.75 is in-play.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday”s reaction down from 2.60 had barely touched 2.55 support when the EIA report triggered a surge that attacked the 2.80 target. The target was never put into play through a close, so the pattern”s next higher target at 2.95 is now likely, so long as pullbacks hold 2.67-2.68 as support. There isn”t much tolerance for dipping much deeper — especially not on Friday, one day following the surge — which would start to suggest 2.49 will still be tested.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri May 1 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Despite being the month”s first Friday, the Employment Situation report is delayed one week. Never mind that, the calendar is plenty busy, with high-profile and influential items.
Loretta Mester Speaks — dovish
8:30 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
John Williams Speaks — dove
3:25 PM ET