Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot… Euro reaches a decision point.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The rally extended to its target, nearly touching 1.1000. Back under 1.0950 would start to signal the bounce”s momentum was reversing down. Closing above 1.1020 would signal the bounce was not only a bounce, but potentially the start of a much larger rally.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Aided by news of direct US-Iran conflict, a pullback to 1194.50 was avoided by surging higher to test 1213.00. Back under 1208.50 would signal the pullback underway.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Early strength Tuesday surged to the upper-end of the 16.45-16.60 resistance band whose lower-end had held Monday. Now a pullback could be limited to testing the lower-end of the band, but any lower would still target 16.10.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
No overnight improvement above the 61.8% resistance that was tested intraday found Tuesday”s open dipping back down to 162-00 support, and through it at least 4 points to trigger its sell signal, which attacked 161-08 intraday.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Narrow ranging between 56.60-57.70 (which I under-reported here by $1 each yesterday) persisted through Tuesday. And this was in spite of news of a direct confrontation between US and Iran. Breakout potential above 57.70 is getting less likely.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming above 2.51 doesn”t offset the preference for retesting the 2.48 opening gap before trying to launch a durable recovery leg.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Apr 29 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
GDP is high-profile, but doesn”t influence price action. Pending home sales might usually, but the afternoon”s FOMC policy statement will be the week”s most influential item. Wording will be dissected for any increased likelihood for hiking rates sooner rather than later.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
**FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2115.25 | 2109.00 |
| …would target | 2120.50 | 2114.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2104.25 | 2098.25 |
| …would target | 2099.75 | 2093.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP INVALIDATED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Livestox will start at 12:15pm
Livestox will start at 12:15pm ET. We”ll review buy setups in Biotechs and Techs, and other high-profile battered issues. I”ll also show you why we knew coming into today”s session that a deep enough probe would be bullish.
Livestox will start at 12:15pm
Livestox will start at 12:15pm ET. We”ll review buy setups in Biotechs and Techs, and other high-profile battered issues. I”ll also show you why we knew coming into today”s session that a deep enough probe would be bullish.
Login info: (iPads and Tablets use the accompanying teleconference info to get audio.)
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxsrhm
optional teleconference instructions (required for iPad and tablets):
1-605-562-0020
Meeting ID 976-912-682 #