Posts by Rod David
Afternoon bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2121.50 | 2114.75 |
| …would target | 2127.50 | 2120.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2114.25 | 2107.50 |
| …would target | 2108.25 | 2101.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Restrained optimism, or drained buyers?
No follow-through to yesterday”s new highs.
Pre-open firming up to 2113.00 couldn”t exceed the overnight high before reversing back down to . That was yesterday”s last-minute low, and it held, reacting up to 2111.00.
Then a 5-point dive touched 2106.00 again. Was it just a knee-jerk reaction to news? Its rejection and recovery is taking quite a lot of time to prove that. Its retracement back to within 1 tick of 2111.00 wasn”t as quick, but it has yet to probe higher.
Back under 2107.50 would signal fresh lows underway, targeting 2104.25. Knee-jerk reaction, obligatory bounce, whatever… choppy extended ranges don”t suddenly resolve, and even the most bullish upleg may need to start fresh from fresh lows.
Avoiding fresh lows could be done by holding above 2108.50, and recovering to 2112.00. Meanwhile, this no-bias environment suggests no strong trending this morning either way.
Gift horse open? “Never look
Gift horse open? “Never look a gift horse in the mouth. It”s rude, and anyway you should be concerned about what its other end is doing.” So, we”re giving this pre-open strength testing 2111 a benefit of the doubt for probing higher this morning. But extending higher isn”t required here, so we”re also prepared to short almost any signs of the pre-open bounce not extending higher intraday. Here”s the pre-market Tour recording:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/zvsvshx
The First Trade… What? No overnight plunge?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the chaRTroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Surging into the noon hour to a new high at 2112.75 began a relatively narrow range back down to 2109.50 until the 3:10-3:20 timing window. The window”s blip-up to new highs at 2114.50 was retraced back down to the morning”s high, just touching it, which was just enough to undermine the breakout attempt. Its reaction down extended to 2106.00, a multi-session breakout.
Overnight action”s new info…
Gyrating down to 2103.00 had ended in time to start firming into Europe”s opens. A 10-point rally from there pierced yesterday”s 2112.75 noon hour high. Headlines focused on EU finmins dressing down the Greek finmin accompanied a reaction down to 2105.50. That has now recovered to test 2110.00.
If, then…
What? No overnight plunge? Seems like the market has finally entered its next stage, as has been expected. Also expected is that this stage is brief, and that it ends poorly. A new high close on Fridays is all but assured to recover eventually from reacting down on Monday, which would be the case anyway for confirming yesterday”s breakout. None of which would affect whether new highs are likely to be brief, only the timing of their ending poorly — sooner and more horribly if missing the opportunity to entrench the rally. To the degree that today”s close will reflect sentiment, it may also be predictive of reactions to high-profile Tech and Biotech earnings early next week (e.g. AAPL, GPRO, GILD). Meanwhile, this being a Friday, the morning”s bias signal tends to persist through the noon hour.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2106.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2114.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2098.00 would be likely to trigger the 2101.50 bias-down signal.
Morning bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2121.25 | 2114.75 |
| …would target | 2127.25 | 2120.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2108.00 | 2101.50 |
| …would target | 2102.50 | 2096.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.