Posts by Rod David
Livestox is delayed until tomorrow
Livestox is delayed until tomorrow at 10:45am ET. I”ll post its link in the morning. Meanwhile, please try the following to ensure that your system is compatible. This should work with ALL devices (but iPhone isn”t compatible with all browsers, but at least works with Chrome or Safari). Please report here if there is any issue. Thanks!
http://www.anymeeting.com/systemtest
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Apr 23 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
More housing sector data Thursday follows Wednesday”s trifecta. It might be more influential to price action than Jobless Claims. The PMI number doesn”t have a track record of influencing price action, yet.
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
5-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2105.00 | 2098.25 |
| …would target | 2110.75 | 2104.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2098.25 | 2091.50 |
| …would target | 2092.75 | 2086.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… A little more ballast than expected.
Post-open dip exceeds its objective before recovering.
The pre-open rally to 2096.00 needed to correct, even in the most bullish scenario. My 2091.50 objective was quickly met, and its test eventually blipped-up to 2094.75. But that was not enough to resume the recovery.
A dive tested the 2088.00-2090.00 range of support, and triggered the 2089.00 bias-down signal. At 10:15, the 2093.00 bias-down target was being attacked to within 3 ticks. That was quick. There was a reason for it being done quickly.
3 ticks is close enough to prevent the bias-down target from becoming “unfinished business below” if not met by 11:30. Having neutralized its target, just returning to 2089.00 by 10:30 all but invalidates the bias-down that it had signaled.
Recovering 2089.00 by 10:30 didn”t recover higher immediately. But then its recovery didn”t stop. The open”s 2096.00 high is being retested now..
Yet another substantial drop that fails to gain traction for its effort. New highs remain likely before any durable downleg can begin.
Ho-hum, S&Ps indicated to open
Ho-hum, S&Ps indicated to open slightly higher. Not surprising, since yesterday”s sellers expended all available energy without gaining traction for the effort… Oh, and another overnight plunge has disappeared.
The 2080.25 low”s Expanding Triangle reversal pattern has played out already, launching a pre-open rally up to 2096. that”s a lot of buying pressure expended near-term, and that”s resistance up to 2096.75, so a pullback to 2091.50 wouldn”t be surprising. It also wouldn”t be too much to ask before considering long-entry. Not holding its test would suggest another probe under yesterday”s lows.
More details in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/mjvzkzy