Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot… Bonds chip away at more support
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The dip”s potential to 1.0650 was cut slightly short from 1.0667 by bouncing back to Monday”s 1.0790 high. There is still no actionable pattern.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Tuesday was retraced back down to 1194.50, but that was recovered to fresh session highs attacking 1204.00. There is no bullish reason to further delay recovering 1205.00-1208.50, and the next test of 1194.50 would be bearish.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday”s opening surge back to 16.10 resistance didn”t extend higher. But its reaction down only filled the gap back to Monday”s close — neutralizing its attraction below, and avoiding a lower close that would have confirmed Monday”s break. Closing back above 16.10 would reverse the trend up.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Tuesday and probing under 164-04 once again limited a surge to less than a one-day cycle. The 163-18 sell signal was tested thoroughly intraday. Its break would still require being confirmed by a second consecutive lower close.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Hovering narrowly at the highs — while US and Iranian battleships come dangerously close to each other — makes the rally very suspect. So would closing under 55.85.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday to attack 2.60 must still close higher to confirm a new rally leg is underway. The 2.54 support is unlikely to hold a retest.
Stop digging.
Bias objective met, with plenty of recovery time available.
The question is whether the market will exploit that recovery time. It”s trying.
An offsetting test of this morning”s 2088.00 bias-down signal was put into play by holding a test of the 2098.25 bias-up signal. RSIs improved into testing and retesting it. Its 5-point reaction up is now attacking 2094.00.
And the afternoon”s bias environment is now lapsing.
The bias environment exit would at least signal downward momentum had lapsed by retracing more than 61.8% of the last downleg. That would be back above 2092.00, which is now being probed by more than 1 point.
Entering the final hour above the last relative high could trigger a short-squeeze — that would be above 2094.50.
Today”s post-close earnings are more high-profile than influential (YHOO). They”re unlikely to inhibit rallying. Just getting back through 2095.25 at any time should be unable to resume declining.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Apr 22 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
I don”t recall ever seeing an alignment like Wednesday”s three staggered housing sector items.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2103.50 | 2096.75 |
| …would target | 2108.50 | 2101.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2094.75 | 2088.00 |
| …would target | 2089.00 | 2082.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Not for lack of trying.
Overnight rally fails to resume.
The pre-open recovery from 2095.25 had eked its way back toward the 2105.25 overnight high. But the open only blipped-up to 2103.50 before reversing back down to 2095.50.
Every minute without recovering from a post-open dip became increasingly vulnerable to extending back down under yesterday”s highs. In fact, the 2098.25 bias-up signal didn”t trigger, and 2091.50 has been touched. Reacting up to 2096.25 is still under yesterday”s highs.
An offsetting test of the 2088.00 bias-down signal is in-play. The 2104.00 bias-up target was attacked to within 2 ticks but not touched, so an offsetting test of the bias-down target is not required.
The no-bias has produced fresh lows since triggering at 10:15. So, the 2088.00 consequence will become “unfinished business below” if not met before the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30.
Regardless of the failed attempt at new highs, this morning”s pullback remains unlikely to become a bigger downleg.