Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Apr 15 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Two Fed speakers Wednesday keep things lively. The housing sector report can be influential. But the afternoon”s Beige Book has a better track record for influencing price action.
Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks — dove
(TUE) 8:00 PM ET
ECB Monetary policy announcement
7:30 AM ET
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
James Bullard Speaks — centrist
9:00 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
*Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*Stanley Fischer Speaks — hawk
10:40 AM ET
**Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
That’s the end of (one of) that.
There is no second bite at this apple. Or at the other.
The test and retest of this morning”s 2076.25 bias-down target has recovered to enter the noon hour unchanged around 2086.50. That”s back above yesterday”s low, and back above this morning”s 2083.50 bias-down signal.
But it”s still flat with yesterday”s close. And it”s still under the opening surge”s 2090.00 high. Entering the noon hour above both would have helped to confirm whether sellers were done, because that would have confirmed momentum reversing up. Now, that much confirmation would require exiting the noon hour above yesterday”s 2092.75 final hour high.
Or, else what? Exactly. Or, else.
Exiting the bias environment above its fulfilled bias-down signal should trap shorts. It is the ultimate example of a timing window template — not just containing a failed trending effort, but that trending effort failing at relevant support.
But, new sellers can still arrive if counter-trend buying sponsorship doesn”t arrive on a timely basis. Containing that failed trending effort creates opportunity, exploited either by entering the noon hour at fresh session highs, or by exiting the noon hour at the prior timing window”s high.
Not exploiting that opportunity would leave a vacuum. The market abhors a vacuum, and it will suck in more selling pressure to extend the decline if buyers aren”t retaking control now.
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2096.00 | 2089.25 |
| …would target | 2102.50 | 2095.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2087.75 | 2081.00 |
| …would target | 2081.50 | 2074.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review… Reinforcing pessimism.
Another opening surge is reversed, but much more quickly.
The opening print essentially was this morning”s 2083.50 bias-down signal. Its inflection surged to attack 2090.00. That was similar to yesterday”s opening action, which I had noted this morning would not be credible for extending higher.
And it didn”t.
Reacting back under 2088.00 triggered a sell signal targeting a retest of the 2083.50 bias-down signal, at least to within 3 ticks. Its test extended down to the 2076.00 bias-down target.
And that was all before 10:15.
The bias-down target wasn”t broken, so this is a bias-down environment, whose target has been met. That doesn”t prevent extending down, but extending down is less likely — because it happens only occasionally after having held its test through 10:15.
The 2076.00 bias-down target was just retested. Back above 2080.00 (being probed now by 2 points) would start to signal the bias-down target”s retest had held, and that momentum may be reversing up.
There”s an interesting similarity between this morning”s open and all of yesterday”s pattern. Repeating yesterday”s optimism suffered the same consequence, but much more quickly. Exiting the bias environment back above the 2083.50 bias-down signal and above 2084.50 — not just holding the bias-down target — might be enough to resume the rally. THE rally.
The overnight plunge”s reaction up
The overnight plunge”s reaction up into yesterday”s range has not held. Unchanged around 2086 has pushed back down to 2081. Opening above yesterday”s 2085.25 low before probing yesterday”s low and then recovering it, would be a more bullish setup than recovering from a gap down from probing yesterday”s low. But both would be dangerous, because NOT recovering from probing yesterday”s low would trigger bias-down. More details at this morning”s pre-market Tour:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/fbffzyf