Posts by Rod David
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Probing fresh lows overnight at the morning’s 2711.00 bias-down target had reacted up sharply, probing above the morning’s bias-up target by an additional 6 points up to 2748.25. And, yet… Rejecting both bias-up parameters put into play a retest of the overnight low that was fulfilled. And then extended, to attack the next lower objective at 2685.00-2686.00 to within 1 tick.
Which could have been the low. Only 1-minute RSI was oversold, so it doesn’t require being retested. Its reaction up recovered the bias environment’s entry, but not until the window had already begun lapsing. So, despite bouncing to 2723.50, the two prior sessions’ “higher prior lows” launched a reaction back down to 2798.00.
This late dip wasn’t too late to form a bearish WedEX. Breaking from within the two prior sessions’ range to close below them makes the signal active — closing back above higher prior lows would have formed a passive bullish setup. Opening high enough Thursday could still trigger a late passive bullish WedEX, but even that might not prevent at least more weakness before a recovery attempt could be credible.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up and probing higher Wednesday filled the gap back up to Friday’s 1.1365 close. Holding its resistance provides an opportunity for the pattern to react down fill the gap back to Monday’s 1.1275 close or to retest its 1.1245 overnight lows to form a more solid bottom.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows attacking 1198.00 overnight and intraday never maintained a break under 1201.50, which would have targeted lower lows, before recovering back up to 1210.00 intraday and then attacking 1217.00 post-close.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s slightly lower fresh lows attacking 13.85 recovered back into positive territory and above Tueday’s high for an outside day, threatening to reverse the trend up or at least to form a corrective bounce.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
One more intraday dip to 138-04 the buy signal was soon retraced and reversed to sharply higher highs at 139-10 as stocks fell. A second consecutive higher close would confirm at least another higher close is required.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-higher ranging up to 57.35 did not form a bottoming pattern and only held a test of the last relative high. A retest of Tuesday’s 54.75 low is likely.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Surging 86-cents / 20% overnight up to 4.96 was the largest one-day gains in 9 years. Its intaday reaction down to 4.36 retraced 61.8% of the distance back to “lower prior highs” before recovering almost all of the overnight highs. The behavior is exhaustive, and back under the 4.36 interim low would trigger a deeper correction.
Mid-day Update… Chopping lower.
Entering the afternoon at fresh lows.
Despite rallying up to 2748.25 through the open, both the 2742.25 and 2735.50 bias-up parameters were rejected. 
Tests of both the 2718.00 and 2711.00 bias-down parameters were put into play. Both were tested, and then some.
2705.00 had been attacked when the morning bias environment started lapsing. A choppy noon hour has resolved down, and the afternoon bias environment’s entry had already attacked its 2698.00 bias-down target. Nevertheless, its 2706.25 bias-down signal wasn’t cleanly triggered, so this is a noN-bias environment.
This is not a no-bias, requiring its bias-down signal to define the window’s lower-end. And this is not a bias-down, requiring its target to be met (although it’s being probed now down to 2692.75).
Exiting the bias environment back above 2698.00 would start to suggest that sellers are done for the day. Meanwhile, there is still an attraction below at 2685.00-2686.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Nov 15, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s calendar is the week’s busiest. Five reports are due simultaneously before the open, which could exacerbate any reaction. Several are high-profile, but only one also has a reliable track record for influencing price action (Philly Fed).
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
*Randal Quarles Speaks
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2718.00 | 2719.25 |
| …would target | 2727.75 | 2729.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2705.25 | 2706.25 |
| …would target | 2697.00 | 2698.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.