Posts by Rod David
Livestox, March 19 2015
Today”s Livestox looked at the broader market, which is especially important with the afternoon”s FOMC policy statement looming. Then we focused on Crude Oil, Gold and the Marijuana sector. The following stocks were reviewed in the following order:
USO
UWTI
DWTI
GLD
NGD
NEM
ABX
CDE
PAL
TAUG
MCIG
TRTC
ERBB
ATTBF
VDSI
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Mar 19 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Several high-profile influential econ reports and events Thursday should make things interesting, especially being one day prior to expiration.
*Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Current Account
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
10:00 AM ET
*Daniel Tarullo Speaks
10:00 AM ET
*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2070.00 | 2061.50 |
| …would target | 2075.75 | 2067.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2062.50 | 2054.00 |
| …would target | 2057.25 | 2048.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Today”s LivestoX starts at 12:15pm
Today”s LivestoX starts at 12:15pm ET. We”ll review the stock market”s pattern going into this afternoon”s FOMC policy statement. We”ll also look closely at Crude Oil and Gold. Then we”ll review any stock chart analysis requests from you.
Login info: (iPads and Tablets use the accompanying teleconference info to get audio.)
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxsrhm
optional teleconference instructions (required for iPad and tablets):
1-605-562-0020
Meeting ID 976-912-682 #
Other requirements can be found here:
http://marketfy.com/product/stock-technical-trade-alerts/blog/1143/view/60141/
Post-open review
Impatient buyers seem to be betting on a “patient” FOMC.
The pre-open hovering just 3 ticks above yesterday”s 2056.25 low reflected optimism. It was repeated post-open. A blip-down into the top of the hour pierced a fresh low down to 2055.75. And then blipped right back up.
More optimism.
From a contrarian perspective, all of that optimism is potentially bearish. It went on to prevent a clean trigger of this morning”s 2060.25 bias-down signal at 10:15, which was still being overlapped at 10:30 to trigger noN-bias. It”s still being overlapped while printing post-open highs up to 2062.00.
Color me skeptical.
The more that it”s fought, especially without yet rallying decisively above 2060.25, the likelier for the FOMC reaction to be down. Sharply. And this is even if the FOMC remains “patient.”