Posts by Rod David
Despite Monday”s bounce, Friday”s tumble
Despite Monday”s bounce, Friday”s tumble was extended at this morning”s open. And the selling has hardly let up. This area is critical in the chart, and this time is critical in the day. The next move from here — whether up, or down — could be substantial.
Following are recent comments in the Activity Feed in case you missed them, and to ensure they”re forever retrievable via search:
GGinPot —where is OXIS headed? Posted Yesterday
fennecby — sounds good, Rod – thanks! Posted Yesterday
Josey — Someone just bought a huge chunk of TAUG Posted Yesterday
fennecby — then sold it, LOL. Posted Yesterday
Josey — 5 million share buy Posted Yesterday
Jo B — I think OXIS coupd be getting accumulated. At least that”s what i”d like to believe Posted Yesterday
fennecby — that”s all of $50k. A lot of money to put on the name, but hardly “a lot of money”. Though who knows. Posted Yesterday
fennecby — Rod – do you still see VAPE trying for new lows? Or can last week”s bounce be the start of a (temporary?) reversal? Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — OXIS — (Sorry, posted this an hour ago in an earlier thread) That was covered in Friday”s Livestox at the video”s 33:50 mark. Friday”s high tested resistance and held. Potential to .076 if this pullback holds .041. Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — VAPE — Still a series of lower lows and lower highs, and a bit of a concern that the recent low stopped optimistically short of touching its prior low (which is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective). That doesn”t prevent a bounce to .79, but anything less is just noise. Posted Yesterday
Chameleon — Your response time is awesome RD. Thanks. Looking at VAPE myself. My sentiment remains negative overall and sector-wide. Sincerely, Debbie Downer. :-)) Posted Yesterday — “Edited”
Scotty B — Rod: Thanks for technicals on SCTY. I dumped on Friday for a small gain. Very glad, as it seem to be continuing drop today. New question. I have been a holder of GM since $31.50 I would like to add more, but it does not seem to be getting to new highs. Is it in consolidation, forming a flag, loosing stem, getting long in the tooth, tired, etc? What would be a reasonable pull back target to add more? Posted Yesterday
casjf — KMI – support and resistance Posted Yesterday
guanito — Hi Rod – ACUR – considering a long here. Thanks. Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — GM — Wouldn”t want to see another pullback before extending higher. The last pullback limit at 36.90 was just tested Friday and is trying to react up today. Closing under 34.75 would signal the trend reversing down Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — KMI — There”s no change to this stock”s parameters, it is now testing the lower-end of a range developing since December. A dip below the range to 39 would be the last opportunity for a rubber band effect that snaps back up into a new upleg. Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — ACUR — Closing back above .93-.98 might be difficult. Posted Yesterday — “Edited”
Rod-David — RE: Portfolio features — Now hearing it will be deployed in “chunks” through the week, but haven”t yet heard back about the timing of limit/stop orders. Posted Yesterday
guanito — Did we cover THCZ yet? Any entry point left? Already long from below – looking to add. Thanks. Posted 23 hours ago — “Edited”
guanito — too late! Posted 22 hours ago
Rod-David — Breaking: Senators plan to introduce federal medical marijuana bill. http://wapo.st/1968rTD Posted 22 hours ago
Rod-David — THCZ — Not closing back under .05 allows this leg to extend to .084 Posted 22 hours ago
guanito — Kudos to Cory Booker & Kirsten Gillibrand. Thanks Rod. Posted 22 hours ago
guanito — Rand Paul can take a walk. Posted 22 hours ago
fennecby — where would be a good place to enter GLUU for a (very) long? Posted 22 hours ago
Rod-David — GLUU — Testing 4.60 intraday and closing above 4.88 would suggest sellers were done. Or, just closing above 5.34 Posted 22 hours ago
Miss Kitty — CBIS, ERBB, GWPH, HEMP, MCIG, MJNA, TRTC, and VAPE are suddenly more interesting with the Senate news conference tomorrow about their pending bill to legalize medical mj in those states where it is approved. This new development may offer a bump up on the charts to accompany your new trade alert implementation. Let”s hope so. :-) Posted 20 hours ago
kit650kr — Thanks for the KMI help ROD Posted 18 hours ago — “Edited”
Chameleon — Now we”re talking. Uncle Sam having involvement means the sector is about to heat up again. Which horse to bet on is anyone”s guess. I”m out of oil, so perhaps it”s time for a change. Posted 17 hours ago — “Edited”
Chameleon — This could be the catalyst to begin to see things turn around. The issue desperately needs more government attention with bank regulations to follow. Posted 16 hours ago — “Edited”
fennecby — cool (re GLUU) – already had an order @4.6. Posted 11 hours ago
fennecby — ORA broke out (again) yesterday. If confirmed today, what would be target? And would you wait for the close to confirm? Posted 7 hours ago
Rod-David — ORA — This leg”s breakout was in January, above 288. A series of smaller pullbacks have continually resolved up, including yesterday”s surge. If 335.70 were touched, then closing back under 34.45 would suggest this upleg from January”s breakout was peaking, even if only to consolidate before extending higher again. Meanwhile, just closing back under 33.65 would signal the consolidation already beginning. Posted 6 hours ago
fennecby — thanks. I should have been less lazy and searched first (not that search is easy here…) – you did give 34.6 to 35.25 as this leg”s target a couple of weeks ago. Posted 6 hours ago
Rod-David — ; ) Posted 5 hours ago
Rod-David — Also, correction: “335.70” has one 3 too many Posted 5 hours ago
Josey — today a good buying opportunity on SIVB? Posted 3 hours ago
Rod-David — SIVB — closing above last week”s high above 128.80 would be very credible for launching a steep rally leg Posted 3 hours ago
Miss Kitty — What would be a good long entry price for UUP? It”s a double US dollar bull etf. Posted 2 hours ago
Rod-David — UUP — This advanced stage doesn”t have a “good” long-entry. But, if long, the rally”s momentum remains intact so long as 25.90 holds as support. Posted 2 hours ago
Miss Kitty — Thank you. Posted an hour ago
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday”s narrow ranging made the next leg likely to begin abruptly, which the overnight drop did. But it also gapped down sharply to already test its next lower maximum objective at 1.0750. And that was probed under 1.0700, putting into play 1.0590, so long as 1.0790 isn”t recovered first.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sharply lower lows Monday night fulfilled the 1154.00 target that would have been decisive if met before the close, so the target was lowered. But Monday”s 1154.00 target was still met before Tuesday”s open, and its reaction up did probe positive treritory. So, after probing negative territory intraday, recovering to close positive Tuesday would signal a bottom had formed. The next lower target in-play is otherwise 1148,00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Deeper lows Monday overnight were retraced in time to open flat Tuesday. Another dip into negative territory attacked the overnight lows, but didn”t touch them, and the decline”s momentum remains intact.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday”s bounce from Friday”s low had held its 156-24 resistance, but Tuesday gapped up above 157-17 and extended to 158-25. Closing any higher would target 159-22, but backing-and-filling is now likeiler — especially if the broader market decline were to begin recovering.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday”s break under the 50.00 sell signal wasn”t confirmed Monday, which bounced to test 50.00 as resistance. But Tuesday”s gap down to attack 49.00 attacked and then exceeded Friday”s probe under 49.00, again signaling a new downleg underway.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday”s drop didn”t extend Tuesday, but neither was it rejected, as the session ranged narrowly without even threatening the 2.77 buy signal.
Steep, deep, and… done?
Next lower target met, and holding.
The next lower renewed bias-down target is 2048.50-2048.75. It was tested at noon, and then into the bottom of the hour, barely piercing this afternoon”s 2047.75 bias-down signal.
Its reaction hasn”t exactly reversed up. Ranging sideways around 2051.00 and attacking 2052.50 has been too shallow to refuel sellers.
Triggering bias-down at 1:20 would be entirely credible for extending the decline. Waiting too long could be reliable only for probing lower temporarily. Bouncing any higher first, back above 2052.50, would be credible for a bounce — but a recovery would take much more evidence.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Mar 11 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Wednesday”s econ calendar is all but blank. MBA apps and Services aren”t influential. The 10-year auction could be interesting, perhaps inhibiting stock market volatility before its placed successfully.
MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET
Quarterly Services Survey
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2056.25 | 2055.00 |
| …would target | 2061.75 | 2060.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2048.00 | 2047.75 |
| …would target | 2042.25 | 2041.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.