Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Gapping down Monday and immediately trending back up duplicated Monday”s gap down that had immediately trended back up, albeit on a smaller scale that didn”t gap down as deeply nor recover as substantially. No new signal was generated by the pattern.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night”s 1190.60 low fulfilled the 1191.50 target”s test, and recovered to open Monday probing back above 1200.00. A required third lower close remains outstanding, and an intraday test of 1191.50 remains desirable. So, the decline probably hasn”t yet ended, and could meanwhile visit the 1185.00 lower-end of its target area. Closing back above 1222.50 would suggest otherwise.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows overnight were recovered in time for Monday”s open to gap up. The balance of the session ranged narrowly in positive territory. The “ineffectual optimism” probably didn”t end the decline.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming at Sunday night”s open waited until regular trading hours before firming back to the 145-10 upper-end of the recent trading range. There is still no buy signal or sell signal, but Monday”s behavior is more consistent with bottoming.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, UWTI))
Gapping down under uptrending support Monday tested the trendline”s 49.00 key low. It held, but closing back above the trendline — then intersecting at 50.50 — would have signaled the break was false. A bounce did touch 50.50. Closing higher Tuesday would still be credible for returning to prior high, but the pattern meanwhile is vulnerable to extending down to new lows.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping open to fresh highs Sunday night at 3.04 still gapped up, but was reversed into negative territory under 2.94 through Monday”s open. The balance of the session trended down deeper into negative territory under 2.90. Closing Tuesday under Monday”s low would reverse the trend down.
Livestox, February 23 2015
Here”s the recording of Monday”s Livestox for those who were unable to attend. The list of stocks reviewed is provided below, in order so you can “fast-forward” the video to find your stock(s) quickly.
Having said that, keep in mind the Livestox primary purpose. While I hope it is helpful to review stocks that interest you, and I try to make it beneficial by identifying parameters for defining what to expect, each stock”s review includes the analytical process that you can apply to better understand what may be motivating a stock”s behavior, and how to consider exploiting it.
FITX
VPOR
NRTI
MBLY
ADEP
OXIS
ATTBF
FULL
RIG
ANGI
CONX
GILD
STEV
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Feb 24 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Day-one of Fed Chair Yellen”s two-day congressional testimony begins with an appearance before the Senate. Opening remarks are typically embargoed until 10:00, at which point the market customarily “reacts” to what she is about to say. One of her first appearances released her remarks at the stock market open, so be on alert. Otherwise, HPI can only surprise if prices rose, but it can be a high-profile report. So is the post-open Consumer Confidence, regardless of the spotlight it will share.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
**Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
**Janet Yellen H-H Senate humphrey
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Holding patter(n).
Invalidating bias-down is only half the battle.
Exiting this morning”s bias environment at 11:30 above the open”s 2105.00 high invalidated whatever was signaled at the 10:15 bias timing window. That was a bias-down, so this morning”s bias-down is invalidated. There is no “unfinished business below.”
Buyers didn”t necessarily gain traction. They only laid the groundwork.
That would require at least triggering this afternoon”s bias-up signal. But that”s 5-6 points higher, after a noon hour dip returned to 2101.50 support, now also this afternoon”s bias-down signal. Just recovering above the open”s 2105.00 high could be productive, if only to hover into the bias environment”s exit and then trend up.
Meanwhile, there remains a vulnerability to dropping again. That may be the market”s plan — non-trending fluctuation, not necessarily dropping — as the Grexit drama finds ways to drag itself out for longer. Having said that, drops at this stage are still not credible for being durable.
Afternoon bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2109.50 | 2107.00 |
| …would target | 2113.75 | 2111.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2103.75 | 2101.50 |
| …would target | 2098.00 | 2095.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.