Posts by Rod David
Let’s make a deal. Oh, we did.
Eurogroup press conference about to begin.
This afternoon”s 2101.50 bias-up target had also been unfinished business outstanding since Tuesday afternoon. It was met during this afternoon”s rally to 2105.00
Simultaneously overbought RSIs are now “unfinished business above,” requiring a retest. No other objectives are outstanding.
Overbought RSIs sent price back down to 2101.50. Touching it has reacted back up to within 1 tick of the high. Stopping pessimistically short of the high, just ahead of the Eurogroup press conference detailing the agreement, suggests the high will be probed by more than a little.
But nothing requires probing the high for more than a minute. Or two. Expiration is a wild card in this environment. The choppy session keeps alive potential to chop again. And although the bias environment was exited above the noon hour”s high, the final hour was entered only AT the bias environment”s high.
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Despite Thursday failing to exploit Wednesday”s close around 1.1400 resistance, and instead drifting down into the afternoon, early strength Friday still would have been credible for extending higher. Grexit headlines instead triggered a deep gap down to 1.1280… Die by the headline, live by the headline — Later headlines were more encouraging for an accord, triggering the Euro”s complete intraday recovery up to 1.1435. Probing above Monday”s highs would still be credible for launching a new upleg.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
A little renewed strength Thursday night held the 1216.00 bounce limit was largely retraced into Friday”s open, but a required third lower close remains outstanding, along with the 1191.50 target area”s test. Post-close probing of fresh lows suggest its test will come soon, and possibly encompass the room for noise below it down to 1185.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow sideways ranging Friday isn”t very predictive. At least a temporary fresh low is likely, but there is no requirement for it to recover before extending to lower targets.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
With no unfinished business below outstanding, a corrective bounce has been free to develop. Firming Friday a half-point above 144-30 was knocked back down to 144-18 support — still not exploiting the bounce opportunity, but also not triggering a new downleg.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, UWTI))
The multi-week Ascending Triangle has yet to break higher, despite having reacted up sharply from Thursday morning”s test of its uptrending support at 49.90.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The outstanding third higher close was produced Friday, after gapping up and remaining entering the weekend above prior highs. Because of the multi-session range preceding it, that is a breakout. A second consecutive higher close Monday would confirm, and create another third higher close requirement. Pullbacks must meanwhile hold lowerprior highs at 2.83 as support.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Feb 23 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Monday”s only report with any track record for influencing price action is the post-open Home Sales. Several other report released the prior week established a weakening trend, so Monday”s report can only suprise to the upside. Meanwhile, the two Fed surveys have no track record for influencing price action.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
*Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Squeezing in a squeeze.
Time was almost up for up.
This morning”s 2084.25 bias-down target was probed by 2 points, but recovered in time to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. A surge soon entered a narrow range around at 2090.00-2093.00, ranging around the 2090.75 bias-down signal.
Then the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30. Then the bias environment finished lapsing at noon. Then half of the noon hour elapsed… Finally, just as a dip began attacking sell signal, an anti-Grexit headline claimed an accord had been met, according to a Greek source.
Another Greek official quickly denied his earlier comrade. The 5-6 point surge to 2097.00 and 2098.00 hasn”t yet been reversed. But it”s certainly underperforming the Euro, which recovered the open”s gap down back up to recent highs.
Headlines aside, the recovery attempt is much delayed beyond optimal timing. Already having entered the noon hour within the open”s range will undermine the credibility of any recovery attempt. Even triggering this afternoon”s 2095.50 bias-up signal would be suspect.
Afternoon bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2099.00 | 2095.50 |
| …would target | 2104.50 | 2101.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2090.00 | 2087.00 |
| …would target | 2084.00 | 2080.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.