Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2784.50 | 2784.75 |
| …would target | 2790.50 | 2790.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2773.00 | 2773.50 |
| …would target | 2764.25 | 2764.75 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Searching for buyers below.
Opening slide extends down sharply.
The 2793.00 opening print is also this morning’s bias-down target. Exceeding it through 10:15 renews the bias-down signal. 
Some support along the way lies at 2788.00, but the renewed bias-down target is essentially 2781.00.
Which was already met.
Quickly falling out of the open soon entered a choppy 5-6 point range around 2788.00. It resolved down to 2778.25. The renewed bias-down target was essentially being tested at 10:15 to avoid doubly-renewing the bias-down signal.
Regardless, this is still a bias-down environment. A bounce has room to 2787.50 (being tested now by 5 ticks) whose recovery would start to signal a bigger recovery underway. Meanwhile, oversold RSIs at the low require a retest, which would be signaled underway back under 2782.00. Extending the decline would next target 2764.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Delayed reaction.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap down to 2804.50 bounced 9 points but didn’t hold. Its retest bounced 11 points, and also didn’t hold. The second bounce filled the gap back up to Wednesday’s cash session close, neutralizing its attraction above. Failed bounces and gap fills are potentially distributive behavior, with that potential being unleashed by breaking under relevant support. And that was essentially 2804.50. Sellers were aided in this effort by having left “unfinished business” below at the morning’s 2800.75 bias-down target. The FOMC policy statement’s reaction helped sellers, too, and the next lower objective at 2795.50 was met. Sellers could also get help from not recovering the 2804.50 area, which a late bounce was still testing until a last-minute surge attacked 2811.00. Oversold RSIs at Thursday’s 2795.50 low require an eventual retest.
Overnight action’s new info…
Globex was initially choppy as Thursday’s last-minute surge to 2811.00 was retraced to within 1 tick of what is this morning’s 2799.50 bias-down signal. All of which was recovered by midnight back up to 2811.00, which is this morning’s bias-up signal. Reversing down since then retraced the bounce, and then consolidated for a couple of hours at Wednesday afternoon’s 2793.75 low. Its eventual break extended to fresh lows at 2789.50, which is now reacting up to test 2793.00, this morning’s bias-down target.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Wednesday afternoon’s 2793.75 low never required being tested as support. Reversing the trend down from Wednesday’s huge rally would have been signaled quickly by opening Thursday under 2793.75. Closing under it Thursday would have qualified, too, if confirmed immediately today. Delaying its break until today is no longer qualified to signal the trend reversing down. It is now only relevant support that is capable of containing the current pullback from Wednesday’s high. But just as the 2793.75 didn’t require a test, its test isn’t required to hold. Its break could extend down to 2764.50 before suggesting a more substantial reversal may have begun. Holding a test of either 2793.75 or 2764.50 — for example, isolating this 2793.75 test to the overnight — wouldn’t ensure the current pullback has ended, but it would help. And the reward for ending the current pullback is at least a retest of Wednesday night’s 2818.00 highs, if not also resuming the rally to the 2850.00 area.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2802.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2799.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2795.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2810.75 | 2811.00 |
| …would target | 2818.50 | 2818.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2799.00 | 2799.50 |
| …would target | 2792.50 | 2793.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Gapping down Thursday under Wednesday afternoon’s 2793.75 bias environment low would have ensured ending the week-long correction and reversing the trend down. But Thursday’s open was too shallow to indicate anything more bearish planned than backing-and-filling.
Gapping down to 2804.50 bounced 9 points but didn’t avoid triggering the morning’s 2808.75 bias-down signal. The open’s retest launched another bounce, which tested the afternoon’s 2815.25 bias-up signal but barely avoid triggering the afternoon’s 2806.00 bias-down signal. The nonN-bias environment fulfilled the morning’s 2800.75 bias-down target (in the wake of the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement), and its next lower objective at 2795.50. Consolidating back up to 2804.50 suddenly surged up to 2811.00 through the close.
Oversold RSIs at Thursday’s 2795.50 low require an eventual retest, which could visit 2793.75, but it has become too late for that to ensure ending the week-long correction and reversing the trend down. There’s now room down to 2764.50 before suggesting a more substantial reversal may have begun. Meanwhile, at least a retest of Wednesday night’s 2818.00 highs would be likely, if not also resuming the rally to the 2850.00 area.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.