Posts by Rod David
In case you haven”t seen
In case you haven”t seen updates of ongoing coverage and initiation of new parameters, here”s a compendium of my most recent comments. Check to see whether you have exposure or interest among any of the following issues:
Rod David — TAUG — retesting 2-week old lows that needed to hold as the maximum pullback before beginning to signal new lows in-play. Posted 23 hours ago —
Rod David — TAUG — We”ve been monitoring the pattern from December”s surge as lacking any confirmation that the trend has actually reversed up. January”s reaction down was a product of the surge”s peak being retested, and of that retest then forming a Double Top. Late-January”s low was already stretching the measurements for being only a corrective dip.
Now the lower close is essentially invalidating that possibility. And if January”s dip wasn”t just a temporary correction before resuming December”s surge, then December”s surge was the correction, and the trend remains down.
That might mean only a shallow retest of December”s low, although reversing back up quickly would not be credible. Alternatively, that might mean resuming the ongoing substantial extended relentless downtrend. Being that the yesterday”s new relative low close is fresh, immediately reversing it back up through today would give the recovery one final reprieve. Posted 7 hours ago —
Rod David — FEYE — Reacting favorably to earnings, gapping up to attack 39. Last week”s gap up wasn”t confirmed by a second consecutive session, making today””s less likely to be confirmed, as well. That”s not necessarily bearish, it”s only relevant to not being able to anticipate a runaway rallly. Posted 5 hours ago — “Edited” —
Rod David — AAPL — The 127 area target is now being fulfilled. I don”t have a higher target that must be tested, but the rally”s momentum remains intact so long as 124.40 holds as support. Posted 5 hours ago — “Edited” —
Rod David — HAL — Above 43.30 would target 47.40 Posted 4 hours ago —
Rod David — RIG — Above 19.80 on volume would target 24. Posted 4 hours ago —
Rod David — TSLA — Substantial resistance at 202, which could be considered a short position”s stop while targeting 170 Posted 4 hours ago —
Rod David — AXP — Gapping down sharply on news, testing the prior low. It”s not a bullish pattern overall, but holding 80.60 as support would maintain an attraction back up to 82.55 Posted 4 hours ago —
Rod David — VDSI — Already confirmed Tuesday”s breakout with a second consecutive higher close on expanding volume yesterday. Closing above 24.75 and 26 would target new highs. Posted 4 hours ago —
Rod David — RIG — Closing under 18.50 would invalidate today”s gap up. Posted 4 hours ago —
Rod David — FITX — The first likely surge target I described Tuesday is now being fulfilled at .0138. Pullbacks need to hold .0125 for optimal confirmation the rally is intact Posted 2 hours ago —
Rod David — TRTC — This may be the long-awaited day that .25-.26 area support finally breaks aggressively. It”s already being probed on volume. A second consecutive lower close would still be needed to confirm, so closing higher tomorrow could be the last opportunity to avoid much lower lows. Posted 2 hours ago —
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Two consecutive sessions of ineffectual pessimism launched Thursday”s rally that quickly extended to 1.1425 resistance. That”s natural resistance at the 61.8% retracement of the last singular plunge. Having held its test intraday, closing above 1.1455 Friday would signal the trend reversing the trend up.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Thursday held a test of the 1227.00 before reversing to fill the gap back down to Wednesday”s ~1220.00 close. Another midday bounce also failed. Being only a slightly lower close and still within Wednesday”s range, Wednesday”s break wasn”t confirmed. But the trend still remains down.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Ranging choppily Thursday, mostly in positive territory, didn”t resolve up. The “ineffectual optimism” makes credible any initial attempt to resume the decline Friday.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Another momentary probe of fresh lows Thursday was retraced back up into Tuesday and Wednesday”s prior range. Closing above 147-18, which is otherwise resistance, would start to signal the trend reversing back up. The trend otherwise remains down.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, UWTI))
Wednesday”s ongoing test of the 49.35 pullback limit proved it had held when Thursday”s open gapped up above Wednesday”s own recovery highs. The morning”s high contained the balance of the session”s price action. Back above 51.85 early Friday would be credible for trending higher into the weekend.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday”s EIA report, after Wednesday”s close confirmed Tuesday”s breakout, couldn”t prevent an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down, but it requires the reaction”s recovery. Having held a test of 2.70 as support, back above 2.77 would start to signal the rally had resumed, with at least one more higher close still outstanding.
Nothin’ but net.
Exiting the noon hour at new highs.
Not all-time new highs, but new relative highs. The highest levels since the highs.
This afternoon”s 2079.50 bias-up signal started to trigger, but a dip just barely managed to touch it within 3 minutes of 1:20. So, a test of the 2084.00 bias-up target will require recovering back above 2079.50 by the bottom of the hour.
The trend could still extend higher regardless, but otherwise back under 2078.00 opens the door again to a corrective dip.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Feb 13 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday”s econ calendar has only one influential report, the post-open Consumer Sentiment data.
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
**Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Richard Fisher Speaks — hawk
1:30 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2084.50 | 2079.50 |
| …would target | 2088.75 | 2084.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2077.50 | 2072.75 |
| …would target | 2071.25 | 2066.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.