Posts by Rod David
Today”s noon hour Livestox will
Today”s noon hour Livestox will begin in 15 minutes at 12:15 ET. The login link is below, and other login instructions are in the previous post made this morning.
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxsrhm
Afternoon bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2072.25 | 2067.25 |
| …would target | 2078.25 | 2073.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2062.50 | 2057.50 |
| …would target | 2057.25 | 2052.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
The path of most resistance.
Choppy morning ultimately recovers positive territory.
Yesterday afternoon”s rally had earned the reward of controlling this morning”s bias environment. “Controlling” seems like the wrong word, considering all of the post-open twists and turns.
But the open did immediately reverse the relentless overnight slide to 2057.75. Touching the 2059.50 bias-down signal reacted up permanently. And “unfinished business above” was left outstanding at 2067.25.
The bias environment began lapsing right after probing fresh post-open highs up to 2065.50. Entering the noon hour above yesterday”s 2066.00 high could trend higher through the noon hour if sellers are indeed marginalized.
There is no bearish pattern above 2061.00. Its break would be required before a sell signal could be identified.
Post-open review
Sellers stalled, but buyers balk.
The overnight dip own to 2058.00 wasn”t likely to extend, and did not. Its recovery into and out of the open attacked 2065.00.
No-bias triggered, after the open”s blip-down barely touched the 2059.50 bias-down signal. So, an offsetting test of the 2067.25 bias-up signal is in-play.
Back under 2059.50 through 11:30 could invalidate the no-bias requirement for testing the bias-up signal. That”s not likely historically after not invalidating the signal by 10:30. Also, the traction gained yesterday afternoon hasn”t yet been rewarded by fresh highs.
Breaking under 2060.75 (it”s being probed now) would open the door to fresh lows anyway. The path to fresh highs remains vulnerable to temporary dips, potentially down to 2057.50 or even to 2055.50.
The overnight dip is responding
The overnight dip is responding to today”s Eurogroup meeting being downplayed. Negative headlines will still have an effect, but they”re largely discounted already, and could create a rubber band effect that snaps back up. Relevant levels are described in this morning”s pre-open Market Tour:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/xmjprbc