Posts by Rod David
Livestox, February 4 2015
Friday”s noon hour Livestox covered a lot of ground. Be sure to watch for an understanding of major moves underway among commodities, as well as the broader market”s situation. Markets and stocks discussed in the following order are:
Market
Crude Oil
PBR
WTI
MDBX
BTU
KMI
GWPH
ATTBF
TAUG
WLL
RIG
FOFU
OGRMF
Gold
CRL
DIS
MNTR
ECA
Who ordered cold water?
Optimistic week may be fulfilled already. But the session isn”t closed.
Pervasive optimism into the pre-open econ report made an initially negative knee-jerk reaction likely to recover and resume the rally. That would have been bullish for this afternoon.
Instead, the favorable knee-jerk reaction may have satisfied the influences that got us here.
Being a Friday, the morning”s bias-up persisted through the noon hour, at least midway through. That”s when ranging around 2 points either way around 2066.00 started breaking lower. This afternoon”s 2058.00 bias-down signal was still being overlapped, but the grace period quickly fulfilled the 2053.25 bias-down target.
Down to 2052.50. That”s under the overnight low.
Had this leg developed immediately following this morning”s favorable reaction, then it would have been absorbed by now, marginalizing sellers for the day. Instead, this afternoon”s bias environment is vulnerable to extending down much deeper. Just hovering around the 2053.25 bias-down target for an hour would be likely to trend down into the close.
Afternoon bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2072.50 | 2067.50 |
| …would target | 2077.00 | 2072.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2063.00 | 2058.00 |
| …would target | 2058.25 | 2053.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN, TESTED BIAS-DOWN TARGET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Good morning! The Livestox host”s
Good morning! The Livestox host”s network is apparently past its issues, so let”s have a session during the noon hour at 12:15 ET.
Scroll down the prior post for any updated stock comments you might have missed. Post current chart analysis requests here. As always, don”t forget that the Livestox benefits includes the demonstration of how specific parameters are determined. So, the specific stocks don”t have to be of interest to you. See you soon…
Login info: (iPads and Tablets use the accompanying teleconference info to get audio.)
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxsrhm
optional teleconference instructions (required for iPad and tablets):
1-605-562-0020
Meeting ID 976-912-682 #
Other requirements can be found here:
http://marketfy.com/product/stock-technical-trade-alerts/blog/1143/view/60141/
Post-open review
The trend is your friend… until it”s not.
This week”s pervasive optimism enabled a favorable reaction to the pre-open Employment Situation report. The 2064.50 bias-up target defined the reaction”s ultimate pre-open high.
The reaction down had room to test 2057.50-2058.25 (“X” on the chart image), filling the gap back to yesterday”s cash session close. It reacted up once, and then held two later tests, helping the 2059.00 bias-up signal to trigger easily.
In fact, the bias-up target was being retested at 10:15. Retested, but not exceeded. The bias-up signal is not renewed. This is still a bias-up environment, and fresh highs were probed up to 2068.00.
Now the bias environment”s lapsing at 11:30 is coming within view 10-15 minutes out. The bias-up influence can be overcome. Testing 2060.00-2062.00 into the bias environment exit or noon hour exit would be postured to extend down well into negative territory through the afternoon.
Otherwise, the post-open recovery can continue drifting higher, next targeting 2071.25. This being a Friday, the morning”s bias tends to persist through the noon hour. So, reversing down is less likely, and more difficult to recover if being done.