Posts by Rod David
Trading Plan for 2/2
If Friday”s range were any wider… then it might have touched either end of Thursday”s range. Friday”s post-open high to post-open low measured ~31 points. Fun Fact #1: the prior session”s range was 37 points. Fun Fact #2: that represented the last 90-minutes of trending. Fun Fact #3: all of Friday”s range was contained within Thursday”s.
Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
Friday was an “inside day,” biased downward, in a downtrend. Most any other day, that would make it difficult to extend the downtrend. The next day would be likely to rally, or else an immediate probe under prior lows would likely recover into a rally.
Friday”s aren”t as predictive. And regardless of the open”s gap down, the intraday bias was flat until the afternoon”s bias environment began lapsing. That last 90-minute window was greeted at post-open highs, which had just filled the gap back to Thursday”s close.
So, except for that last 90-minute plunge, this setup on most any other day would be likely to extend the downtrend.
Thursday”s pivotal low (the low prior to its actual low) was narrowly avoided. Touching it would have entrenched the afternoon”s downward momentum to ensure absorbing a bounce. That could be bullish, to the extent that the bearish setup was avoided.
The late-morning reaction to the Greece headline”s trial balloon should be a warning that favorable news over the weekend could trigger a bigger rally Monday. Thursday”s bullish Pivot Reversal didn”t produce, but neither was it rejected. Regardless, making it through the weekend without favorable news would be likely to probe sharply lower.
What”s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
Join us this weekend for the Saturday Review. We”ll cover the broader market — tracing out the potential paths higher or lower — and then do instant analysis of your stock chart requests. Click here up to a half-hour before the 9:30 ET start time.
Morning bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2008.75 | 2002.25 |
| …would target | 2017.50 | 2011.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1989.75 | 1983.25 |
| …would target | 1983.25 | 1976.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Good news — The recording
Good news — The recording of Friday”s post-close Market Wrap is here!
Bad news — Video froze before covering other markets, at the 9:15 mark.
Good news — that”s all the bad news.
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/tybjymv
Hold short, or hold your breath.
The next support below current levels is… scary.
The Greece headline”s reaction was substantial, essentially rallying 16 points in 30 minutes to 2010.00. Its 12-point retracement was similar, rallying 19 points just over an hour to 2017.00.
They were also similar in being “the fruit of the poisonous tree,” that being the late-morning new session lows at 1993.50.
Now there are newer session lows at 1992.00. And there is no reason that can”t be probed. Today. By a lot.
The position-squaring window is now opening. Unless it were to recover back above 2000.00, the downward momentum remains very much intact.
Hold short, or hold your breath.
The next support below current levels is… scary.
The Greece headline”s reaction was substantial, essentially rallying 16 points in 30 minutes to 2010.00. Its 12-point retracement was similar, rallying 19 points just over an hour to 2017.00.
They were also similar in being “the fruit of the poisonous tree,” that being the late-morning new session lows at 1993.50.
Now there are newer session lows at 1992.00. And there is no reason that can”t be probed. Today. By a lot.
The position-squaring window is now opening. Unless it were to recover back above 2000.00, the downward momentum remains very much intact.