Posts by Rod David
Afternoon bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2013.25 | 2006.75 |
| …would target | 2019.50 | 2013.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2005.75 | 1999.25 |
| …would target | 2001.00 | 1993.25 |
| Signal status: NON-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS SIGNALS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review
Dodged one bullet. From a six-shooter.
The overnight drop eventually extended down to the lowest possible support noted in First Trade at 1996.00. That was yesterday”s 1:20 print when no-bias triggered. Its test and retest before the open launched a rally through the opening 15 minutes that touched 2012.50.
That was so fun, let”s do it again.
Sure! The next 45 minutes dropped throughout. The 2008.75 bias-down signal triggered. The 2001.00 bias-down target wasn”t exceeded until after 10:15, but it was exceeded down to 1996.00.
The first recovery was fun, let”s do THAT again, too!
Okay… A quick bounce has extended up to 2004.00. That”s not enough to assume the recovery dodged another bullet — exiting the bias environment above 2007.00 would be more credible. But 2001.00 is the minimum.
And now, another bullet: The reaction down from 2004.00 is testing 1997.00. This is getting dangerous ahead of a Friday afternoon, to have already expended so much buying pressure, and so obviously.
Thursday night”s drop has brought
Thursday night”s drop has brought Friday”s open to the doorstep of inverting yesterday”s bullish Pivot Reversal, and potentially triggering a “session-long decline.” That would be Ugly (with a capital “U”) ahead of the weekend illiquidity, at well-worn support. Holding on to rally would be bullish, probably into next week. Here are the relevant levels and behavior, described in this morning”s pre-open Market Tour:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/rkrcpsm
The First Trade.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Enter the Chartroom here (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday morning”s probe of fresh lows satisfied all known selling pressure down to 1982.00, while being sponsored by weak hands, which became trapped through the noon hour”s entry. Rallying 37 points to almost 2019.00 through the balance of the session wasn”t necessarily sponsored by strong hands — the afternoon”s no-bias environment missed two opportunities to be negated on a timely basis (at its 2000.00 signal and its 2008.00 target), and the recovery peaked a couple of points short of its optimal objective. But the session did form a bullish Pivot Reversal, and buyers gained traction for their effort.
Overnight action”s new info…
Initial firming up to 2020.50 was short-lived, and downtrending since then has touched this morning”s 2001.00 bias-down target. A bounce from there attacked 2008.00.
If, then…
Garbage in, but not entirely out: Having gained traction, yesterday”s buyers are assumed to have earned control of this morning”s bias environment. The overnight drop is threatening to invalidate that traction, by gapping down under a prior low like 2001.50. We gave yesterday”s buyers a benefit of the doubt for not needing to revisit 2000.00, so holding its retest would neutralize that potential attraction below. The last supports are yesterday”s 1999.00 opening print, and the 1:20 bias timing window”s 1996.00 low. If the Pivot Reversal isn”t effective soon after the open, then the bullish setup would invert to being bearish — yesterday”s buyers never proved they were strong-handed, and yesterday”s weak-handed sellers did chip away at support. Not extending the recovery could easily default to resuming the decline, which would become a melt-down into the weekend.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2004.75 would be likely to trigger the 2008.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1999.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2001.00 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open back above 2011.00 would make the bias-down signal unlikely to trigger.
Thanks to Tamara for pointing
Thanks to Tamara for pointing out that I provided the wrong link earlier. HERE is the recording to Thursday”s post-close Market Wrap:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/ypyvkym