Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Jan 30 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights:
Friday”s econ calendar has three influential reports. One of the more
influential is also one of the lower-profile, the Chicago PMI. Its
influence is often noticed several minutes early when the data is released
to institutional subscribers. And that reaction tends to extend when it is
released publicly.
**GDP
8:30 AM ET
Employment Cost Index
8:30 AM ET
**Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Daniel Tarullo Speaks — dove
12:45 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2006.75 | 2000.00 |
| …would target | 2014.75 | 2008.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 1984.50 | 1987.75 |
| …would target | 1987.75 | 1981.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review
Can”t keep a downtrend up.
The overnight bounce to within 1 tick of this morning”s 2003.25 bias-up signal”s resistance had reacted down to 1992.00. The pre-open bounce to 1999.00 had retraced the dip by 61.8%.
That”s big resistance, too. Only the open”s noise pierced it, and only momentarily. Its test launched another downleg to 1985.50.
Reacting up to 1997.75 resistance kept the 1990.75 bias-down signal overlapped through 10:15, invoking the grace period. It held at 10:30, triggering “late no-bias.”
So, this morning”s 1990.75 bias-down signal should define the morning range”s lower-end. The bias-down signal can be probed, along with new lows. In fact, since yesterday afternoon”s sellers gained traction for their efforts, this morning”s bias environment SHOULD probe new lows.
And new lows ARE being probed. The 1984.00 bias-down target was never put into play, but it has been probed to within 1 point of its room for noise at to 1981.00.
Recovering to 1990.75 would help to form a bullish “Pivot Reversal” session — gapping up in a downtrend, and closing above the open”s highs, after recovering from an interim dip to new trend lows — but only if that recovery were to extend back above the open”s highs, and also above the 2003.00 overnight highs for good measure.
But after “tagging up” with a retest of the 1990.75 bias-down signal, the decline could still resume, in a very big way. And tagging up at all would be unlikely if the bias environment were exited under the open”s 1985.50 low.
Good morning! Benzinga.com has been
Good morning!
Benzinga.com has been reaching out lately to mavens to comment on stocks about to release earnings. Yesterday”s request was for BABA, which reported yesterday and is indicated to gap down this morning. My comments are below. Today”s request is for GOOGL and AMZN, also below. That”s all they get, they”re not a subscriber. But you are, so ask away…
The decline from November”s peak has extended into January. It is a classic downtrend, defined as a series of alternating lower lows and lower highs. Earnings are no being greeted from a position of strength.
// Meanwhile, January”s price action has formed an “inverted Head &Shoulders.” The pattern often reverses the trend, but only temporarily. Measurements of this pattern indicate that an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up to the 108 area would be vulnerable to reversing back down. Maybe earnings impress enough for the blip-up, before attention turns to recent news of China”s government meddling in BABA”s operations.
// Not all Head &Shoulders patterns reverse the trend, not even temporarily. Extending down first should test 92.50. Still holding 92.50 through the first hour would likely react up to 97 or 100 before the downtrend resumes.
AMZN — Last week”s bounce peaked just shy of reversing momentum back up, but it might have created a buffer to help absorb a negative knee-jerk reaction down. The 55-point drop since November rallied 30 points last week until testing the drop”s last relative high around 315. Recovering it before earnings would have greeted the news from a position of strength. At least holding above 302 since then has avoided reversing momentum back down, but an initially favorable reaction must exceed 320 to actually reverse the trend back up. Greeting the news from under 302 or 296 could easily resume the last downleg which would next target 263.
GOOGL — The 79-point drop from November bounced back 55 points into last week”s high. Its prior high was tested, but held. The 40-point reaction down since then may be only defensive posturing, constructive pessimism which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. But greeting earnings from under 502 would be vulnerable to reacting down sharply.
Is the recovery attempt from
Is the recovery attempt from overnight lows doomed to failure? The relevant levels are described in this morning”s pre-open Market Tour recording. It begins by looking at the bigger picture, which is a must-see…
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