Posts by Rod David
Good afternoon! A few updates…
Good afternoon!
A few updates…
AAPL — Earnings coming after Tuesday”s close. Greeting them from above 115.25 would get a benefit of the doubt for reacting favorably, potentially back up to and through the ~120 high to 127.65. But even that wouldn”t change the extended nature of the pattern. In fact, a fresh high would resemble UPS through yesterday”s close.
GWPH — Volume is evaporating despite hovering at 76 for a week. Back under 72.50 would trigger new lows.
FEYE — Volume isn”t expanding, but also isn”t very light for a Friday. Today”s price strength is credible for extending higher.
CLF — Big opening drop ahead of Crude Oil now probing new lows. The origin of the drop and volume accompanying it suggests it will be only temporary. Closing positive is preferable, and closing back above 8.30 would be palatable, but closing under 8.15 might not avoid a deeper dip into next week.
Baby stairsteps.
Gradually inching higher from the morning”s low.
This morning”s bias timing window did not exceed either bias signal, so “no-bias” triggered at 10:15. Having tested the 2049.25 bias-down signal during that window, an offsetting test of the 2061.50 bias-up signal was put into play.
Sellers have tried to retake control. But a fresh low after 10:30 was recovered. Its recovery has extended gradually and choppily to eventually touch 2057.25. But really, post-open bounces have either touched or momentarily pierced 2055.00. Its resistance is still holding.
Its resistance is being chipped away, too. But meanwhile, its resistance is still holding.
2061.50 is “unfinished business above.” Its eventual test is required, and nothing can change that. An interim dip is possible — unlikely, but entirely possible. Back under 2053.50 and 2051.00 would at least challenge the open”s lows. Otherwise, another fresh high here — like all other post-open highs today — would get every benefit of the doubt for rallying to fresh highs.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jan 26 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday”s highlight is Sunday, with Greece”s elections. Going into it, the leading party is somewhat in favor of defaulting on its sovereign debt. Exit-polling should influence Sunday night”s Globex, and then Monday”s open.
Greece election
Sunday
PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2064.75 | 2058.75 |
| …would target | 2070.50 | 2064.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2053.50 | 2047.50 |
| …would target | 2047.00 | 2041.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open review
Slow-playing is in the eye of the beholder.
Yesterday”s buyers haven”t yet been rewarded for having gained traction yesterday. Typically, that would be trending above yesterday”s highs during this morning”s bias environment.
Instead, the bias environment so far has been spent testing and retesting this morning”s 2049.25 bias-down signal as support. Each test has bounced, but only back up to 2055.00.
That”s preventing a recovery from fulfilling an off-setting test of the 2061.50 bias-up signal. It”s in-play because the 2049.25 bias-down signal was tested before ultimately holding through 10:15. Breaking under it through 10:30 would have invalidated that, but it was probed later.
In fact, probing 3 points under 2049.25 after 10:30 nevertheless held its 3-minute low. And a 9-point surge returned right back up to 2055.00.
Having dipped to 2050.00, back above 2053.50 should launch a recovery leg through the bias environment”s 11:30 exit. That”s now within 10-15 minutes, so probing fresh lows back under 2048.50 would undermine the rally potential.