Posts by Rod David
Sellers marginalized?
Afternoon rally gained traction.
The afternoon”s 2010.25 bias-up signal wasn”t probed uncontrollably during the no-bias environment. There was no overly-optimistic no-bias trending to retrace.
In fact, a dip tested 2007.50. But it was rejected by surging 5 points to fresh highs into and out of the bias environment exit. That has extended up to almost 2020.00.
More important is that the final hour was entered above the bias environment”s high, after exiting the bias environment above the noon hour”s range. The rally gained traction for its effort.
Sellers may be marginalized for the day. Regardless, a reaction has room to 2015.00 before signaling the trend may be reversing down. Extending higher today or tomorrow would next target the 2023.00 area, and then 2029.50.
Daily Spot
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today”s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE))
Holiday strength was pushed back through Tuesday, but only to correct the rally from Friday”s low. Closing above 1.1595 would signal a rally leg underway, targeting 1.1785 and 1.2000.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming into week”s end didn”t extend meaningfully until Tuesday surged through 1287.70 to attack 1300.00. The rally is extended, but its momentum remains intact so long 1285.70 holds as support. But there is room down to 1266.50-1269.00 before actually signaling momentum is reversing down.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Rallying to 18.00.now requires that pullbacks hold 17.65 to maintain the rally”s momentum.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Narrow sideways ranging through the holiday did blip-up Tuesday morning, but stopped 61.8% of the way back to last week”s test of the 150-08 bounce limit”s resistance at 150-16. Any higher would suggest the rally remains intact and next targeting 150-28. The earliest sell signal at this stage would be triggered by losing back under 149-14.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO))
Opening Tuesday back under 47.80 (basis Mar, 47.45 basis Feb) extended down only briefly and only a little. The balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways, but didn”t trend down. So long as 46.20 holds as support, back above 49.00 would launch a new rally leg. Having said that, taking much longer to recover becomes increasingly vulnerable to resuming the decline.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Backing-and-filling persisted through the holiday, neutralizing all lower attractions so that another buy signal could be introduced back above 2.98.
This next step could be big.
Noon hour”s bounce held up into the afternoon.
This is a no-bias environment. Neither bias signal was touched by 1:20. Only due to a very last-minute 4-point surge was the 2010.25 bias-up signal even attacked. But it was only attacked within 3 minutes of the 1:20 bias timing window. So, this is a no-bias environment.
That could have been invalidated by exceeding the 2010.25 bias-up signal through1:30. It was touched by then, but not exceeded. So, literally as much buying pressure has been expended as is possible to expend without signaling an actual break above resistance.
So, the 2010.25 bias-up signal is the range”s upper-end, at least until the bias environment comes within view of lapsing at 10-15 minutes before 1:30. Meanwhile, back under the 2006.00 area would start to signal momentum reversing down.
Exceeding either could extend through the close, and into tomorrow morning. Exceeding the 2010.25 bias-up signal too soon would be problematic for being “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced. But a there is plenty of room to fall before threatening this afternoon”s bias-down signal at fresh lows.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jan 21 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The annual State of the Union address is rarely influential. It”s barely inhibitive. Even tax proposals tend to be discounted already by the market — and that”s just the ones that might be adopted or negotiated. Much more meaningful will be the BOJ policy statement, coming between the SNB and ECB moves.
State of the Union
Tue 9:00 PM ET
**BOJ policy statement
overnight
MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2016.50 | 2010.25 |
| …would target | 2021.75 | 2015.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2001.25 | 1995.00 |
| …would target | 1994.75 | 1988.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.