Posts by Rod David
Good morning! Friday”s close was
Good morning! Friday”s close was essentially 2012.50. Sunday night”s 4-point opening dip was soon recovered by a surging through the 2016.50 bias-up signal, and probing its 2022.75 bias-up target. Crashing Chinese stocks triggered a sympathetic reaction down to 2003.00. Sympathy, shmypathy… Friday”s 2012.50 close is being retested now… Chartroom is open. Globex trading will be halted at 1pm ET and re-open at 6pm ET.
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The Universe, week of January 19 2015
Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Links to || Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||
The streak continues, as the stocks in rolling 4-week uptrends expands to 18% of the Universe. That”s with an assist from adding OXIS to the coverage, but the rest were new improvements.
Not all improving stocks have flipped their “flat” status to “up.” Case in point, MCIG. It had rallied already from fulfilling my .103 target to within an acceptable .004 reach. Testing and retesting of its .18 resistance finally broke through to close above it. But its rolling 4-week trend is still flat.
One more reminder: If you own a stock in this sector that hasn”t yet begun firming after trending down through year-end, then take a closer look. Enlist my help (actually, you already have by subscribing, and just need to bring the specific situation to my attention). Probabilities are high that the story doesn”t hold up.
Two more observations before closing… TRTC has retraced all of its new year surge — which never gained traction anyway — and sits precariously again at support. VAPE could be saved from new lows if it doesn”t delay rallying early this week no heavy volume, because that delay can be deadly at this stage.
The broader market is as frothy as I”ve ever seen it. This sector has found an opening to produce many rallies these first two weeks of the new year. Those two statements are different sides of the same coin. Note that the biggest benefit to the sector”s recent rallies may be the extra room available to absorb natural pullbacks without reversing their trends back down.
Enjoy!
| Marijuana Stock Technical Trader”s Universe for January 19, 2015 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 18 | 17.14% |
| trends* | # flat: | 20 | 19.05% |
| # down: | 67 | 63.81% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| ACAN | 0.050 | 1.260 | down |
| ACGX | 0.000 | 0.003 | up |
| AERO | 3.500 | 4.700 | flat |
| AGTK | 0.005 | 0.127 | down |
| AMMJ | 0.500 | 1.070 | flat |
| ARNA | 4.900 | 7.350 | up |
| ATTBF | 0.135 | 0.202 | flat |
| AVTC | 1.350 | 1.800 | flat |
| AXXU | 0.066 | 0.377 | down |
| BLOZF | 0.074 | 0.154 | flat |
| BLPG | 0.120 | 0.370 | down |
| BNRDF | 0.605 | 0.795 | up |
| BRDT | 0.032 | 0.094 | down |
| BTFL (cank) | n/a | n/a | down |
| CANL | 1.420 | 1.970 | up |
| CANN | 6.220 | 9.300 | up |
| CANV | 3.470 | 4.750 | up |
| CARA | 9.960 | 12.450 | up |
| CBDS | 7.150 | 10.100 | flat |
| CBGI | 0.002 | 0.015 | down |
| CBIS | 0.057 | 0.088 | flat |
| CGRW (bzcn) | n/a | n/a | up |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 1.185 | 2.035 | up |
| CTCO | 0.060 | 0.330 | down |
| DEWM | 0.003 | 0.007 | flat |
| DIGP | 0.025 | 0.100 | down |
| DSCR | 0.001 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.020 | 0.032 | up |
| EDXC | 0.031 | 0.077 | down |
| ENDO | 0.014 | 0.031 | down |
| ENRT | 0.048 | 0.100 | flat |
| ERBB | 0.011 | 0.017 | flat |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| FITX | 0.007 | 0.023 | down |
| FRTD | n/a | 0.008 | flat |
| FSPM | 0.018 | 0.315 | down |
| FULL | 4.380 | 5.230 | down |
| FWDG | 0.005 | 0.018 | down |
| GBLX | 0.208 | 0.486 | down |
| GRCU | 0.003 | 0.008 | down |
| GRNH | 0.090 | 0.174 | flat |
| GWPH | 71.950 | 81.500 | flat |
| HEMP | 0.032 | 0.048 | flat |
| ICBU | 0.008 | 0.016 | flat |
| IGPK | n/a | n/a | down |
| IGRW | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.095 | 0.140 | down |
| INCC | 0.001 | 0.007 | down |
| INSY | 43.000 | 51.700 | up |
| ITNS | 0.006 | 0.011 | down |
| LATF | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| LXRP | 0.084 | 0.129 | up |
| MCIG | 0.177 | 0.258 | flat |
| MDBX | 3.720 | 7.320 | down |
| MDCN | 0.000 | 0.168 | down |
| MDRM | 0.024 | 0.060 | down |
| MINE | 0.009 | 0.014 | up |
| MJMD | 0.011 | 0.082 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.020 | 0.499 | down |
| MJNA | 0.099 | 0.160 | down |
| MJNE | n/a | n/a | down |
| MNTR | 0.660 | 1.767 | up |
| MYEC | 0.012 | 0.027 | down |
| MYHI | 0.000 | 0.380 | down |
| NDEV | 0.200 | 0.440 | up |
| NRTI | 0.001 | 0.048 | down |
| NTRR | 0.050 | 0.220 | down |
| OGRMF | 0.304 | 0.615 | down |
| OSLH | 0.009 | 0.021 | down |
| OXIS | 0.013 | 0.044 | up |
| PAUFF | n/a | n/a | down |
| PHOT | 0.019 | 0.065 | down |
| PLPL | 0.263 | 0.426 | flat |
| PMCB (nvlx) | 0.155 | 0.215 | flat |
| PNTV | n/a | n/a | flat |
| PZOO | 0.005 | 0.030 | down |
| QEDN | 0.001 | 0.007 | down |
| REDG | 0.001 | 0.003 | up |
| RFMK | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.069 | 0.266 | down |
| SING | 0.002 | 0.009 | down |
| SKTO | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| SPRWF | 0.230 | 0.336 | down |
| SRNA | 0.303 | 0.550 | down |
| STEV | 0.071 | 0.100 | down |
| TAUG | 0.012 | 0.020 | down |
| THCZ | 0.007 | 0.017 | down |
| TRTC | 0.247 | 0.330 | down |
| TURV | 0.410 | 0.775 | down |
| TWMJF | 1.490 | 2.040 | down |
| UPOT | 0.340 | 0.900 | down |
| USEI | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| UTRM | 0.000 | 0.000 | down |
| VAPE | 0.490 | 0.930 | down |
| VAPR | 0.050 | 0.120 | flat |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.022 | 0.040 | up |
| VPCO | 0.820 | 1.290 | down |
| VPOR | 0.000 | 0.009 | down |
| VRCI | 0.000 | 0.009 | down |
| WDHR (anyi) | 0.000 | 0.015 | down |
| WOGI (cybk) | 0.002 | 0.008 | down |
| XTRM | 0.000 | 0.006 | down |
| XXII | 1.110 | 1.560 | down |
| ZDPY | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Morning bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2023.25 | 2016.50 |
| …would target | 2029.25 | 2022.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2014.00 | 2007.50 |
| …would target | 2007.75 | 2001.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment”s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don”t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it”s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Trading Plan for 1/18
If the three-day weekend has any effect… then it is already discounted by price action through Wednesday”s close. The bearish WedEX has little excuse for letting Friday afternoon”s rally develop during it watch. It had measured a relevant degree of pessimism as of Wednesday”s close. But Friday did not behave bearishly.
Pattern points… (Setups and technicals)
That is, not unless a sudden, steep and substantial plunge were to compensate for its detour. And that”s still in the realm of possible resolutions for the passive bearish WedEX. Actually, it is the last remaining possibility. Setups to trend down at noon, to trend down at the 1:20 bias timing window, or simply to trend down before the close, all came and went.
In the process of ignoring its bearish bias, Friday afternoon did form a potentially bearish setup. That is the bias environment”s Symmetrical Triangle, a pattern that tends initially to break falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. Reversing is difficult on expiration day, so perhaps that stage is being delayed until Sunday night.
Meanwhile, the afternoon”s ranging actually began before the bias environment and lasted through it. Fresh highs weren”t probed until the last half hour, the least relevant timing window. Until then, Wednesday”s 2005.00 cash session closed had been serving as resistance.
WedEX missed its opportunities to invert and become bullish. So, either it failed, or else next week gets off to an ugly start.
What”s Next… (Outlook and opportunities)
There”s no Saturday Review this weekend, so the post-close Market Wrap looked at the bigger picture after discussing other markets. Please post any questions to the Activity Feed and I”ll get to them during the weekend. Enjoy!
Friday afternoon”s post-close Market Wrap
Friday afternoon”s post-close Market Wrap recording is available at this link. As there is no Saturday Review this weekend, we looked at the bigger picture after discussing other coverage.
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