Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Nov 5, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s econ calendar is busy for a Monday, and even high-profile. None of its scheduled reports have a reliable track record for influencing price action, but high-profile reports on an unusually busy day might be the next most reliable catalyst.
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2727.25 | 2727.75 |
| …would target | 2733.75 | 2734.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2716.50 | 2717.25 |
| …would target | 2708.75 | 2709.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… A Rubicon too far.
Breaking too much resistance, too quickly.
Potential for noise above the overnight high’s China trade new reaction was attacked (to within 1 tick) at 2765.25. 
Its reaction down was underway already to greet the Employment Situation report at 2756.50. The reaction continued trending down into the pre-open’s test of this morning’s 2747.75 bias-up target as support.
Still well above yesterday’s 2741.25 highs. But the post-open bounce only retraced the payrolls 2756.50 origin, and resumed its reaction down. The 2740.50 bias-up signal triggered cleanly, only to be invalidated by breaking under it decisively through 10:30. Offsetting tests of the 2731.75 and 2721.50 bias-down parameters weren’t required, but they were met (to within 1 tick) anyway. Oversold RSIs require the low’s retest.
All of which sliced through “lower prior highs” at 2737.00-2738.25. They would usually be allowed to influence the drop. Lower lows remain possible, especially so long as bounces now hold 2733.75 as resistance (being tested now). But a bigger corrective bounce would have room up to 2741.00-2743.00.
Back under 2727.75 and 2725.25 would start to signal the decline extending — especially during the bias environment lapsing and noon hour entry. This is Friday, so Friday Factors apply, like the morning’s bias signal persisting through the noon hour.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Turn of events.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday morning’s wide swings triggered multiple signals, up and down, that all produced multi-point moves within minutes. They all also reversed to and through their triggers, substantially. Trump threw a China trade tweet into the mix, creating a bottom at 2708.00 and a surge through the 2720.00 open to 2731.00. Wide swings were replaced by grinding higher through the morning bias environment, noon hour, and afternoon bias environment. Multiple opportunities were ignored to accelerate the pace, finally breaking higher after becoming too late to gain traction for the effort. A very late blip-up to the 2741.00 objective was consolidated through the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
A Tale of Two Markets. First, AAPL’s earnings disappointed as its chart had suggested, triggering a reaction down to Thursday’s 2726.00 opening highs. Globex immediately probed lower to 2723.00, and just as quickly began firming up to 2730.00. A surge attacked Thursday’s high before retracing back down to 2730.00 by midnight. And then came the news — another favorable China trade headline, which triggered a 14-point spike up to 2747.75 that extended another 17 points to test 2764.00, ranging sideways since Europe’s opens. There’s room for noise to fresh highs at 2766.50.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Closing above Wednesday’s 2737.00 high would have been bullish, had the breakout been underway prior to ignoring the timely breakout opportunities. Breaking higher later isn’t strong-handed sponsorship. So, now trading higher overnight — regardless of by how much — the question is whether yesterday’s post-close dip neutralized the late breakout’s “ineffectual optimism,” which would next target 2773.50 and 2786.75. Otherwise, yesterday’s late ineffectual optimism could apply as much to AAPL’s earnings as to this morning’s Employment Situation report. And any initial weakness would be credible for extending down, confirmed under 2750.75, and targeting 2729.00-2731.50.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Preliminary indications are normally unavailable prior to Employment Situation reports. However, relevant levels above are 2773.50 and 2786.75; relevant levels below are 2750.75 and 2733.75.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2740.25 | 2740.50 |
| …would target | 2747.50 | 2747.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2731.25 | 2731.75 |
| …would target | 2721.00 | 2721.50 |
| Signal status: INVALIDATED BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.