Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Watching that next step.
Noon hour range hangs on to the lows.
The bias environment’s reversal down from 2707.00 had extended to 2682.50 before the bias environment began lapsing. A bounce resolved down to enter the noon hour even lower at 2679.00. And the noon hour extended down to 2666.00.
A lot of selling pressure, and almost all developed in positive territory. This afternoon’s 2679.00 bias-down signal triggered late AFTER having fulfilled its 2669.75 bias-down target. Twice. Its retest isn’t required, and it won’t become “unfinished business” if not retested. But it’s still an attraction during the bias-down environment.
Back above 2684.50 would start to signal momentum reversing up. I would expect it to behave like a short-squeeze relief rally IF it catches at all. Relief from what? Relief from the bias-down environment not extending down through the afternoon, which it’s free to start doing.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Oct 30, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar is relatively busy, but has only one high-profile econ report that is reliably influential to price action. It is the post-open Consumer Confidence, and it’s likely to duplicate any noticeable reaction to either of the two pre-open reports.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2689.25 | 2689.00 |
| …would target | 2698.255 | 2698.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2679.00 | 2679.00 |
| …would target | 2669.75 | 2669.75 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Legs.
Overnight rally extends post-open.
The overnight rally had attacked 2701.00 before correcting 10 points, and holding there into the open. A post-open dip touched its minimum objective at 2687.25 and then snapped back up 20 points to fresh highs at 2707.00. Any higher would next target 2712.50, 2715.50, and then potentially above 2723.00.
All from a position of weakness.
That weakness is from still overlapping Friday’s 2692.00 high through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. It wasn’t rejected, which probably would have avoided higher highs altogether. But still testing it at 9:45 did not reflect strong-handed sponsorship.
The position of weakness meanwhile doesn’t require extending to any next higher target. Maintaining a break back under 2700.25 (being tested now) should at least retest the open, regardless of its eventual resolution.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… A bouncy night, trying to break free.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s open followed a steep and then deep drop from Thursday’s 2707.00 cash session close. Already greeting Globex at 2688.00, overnight action had extended down to 2646.00. A 26-point bounce into and out of Friday’s open quickly peaked at 2672.00, and then plunged 44 points to 2627.50. The post-open plunge was isolated between the bias environment’s entry and exit, which tends to hold on Fridays. The setup’s vulnerability to reversing up into the weekend was exploited only temporarily to 2692.00 as the noon hour ended. But another drop attacked 2641.00 before firming into the close — which was all over the place. Cash session ended at 2657.50 on the way up to 2672.00 before futures settled.
Overnight action’s new info…
A false start may be resolving up. Although Sunday night’s open quickly surged to 2682.00, the market then drifted gradually back down to 2660.00 ahead of Europe’s opens. Flat-to-higher ranging around 2667.00 suddenly launched a 16-point surge back to and through the open’s highs, perhaps in reaction China trade headlines. A second surge is now testing 2692.50, up sharply from Friday’s close, and now testing Friday’s intraday high.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday’s entire session developed entirely in negative territory, gapping down and probing a prior low but not closing under it. That last characteristic puts the “ineffectual” in Ineffectual Pessimism, a setup that can launch a counter-trend bounce. Which the overnight bounce may be foreshadowing, but it still depends on Monday’s open isolating Friday’s session. Otherwise, overnight buying pressure will have been expended without gaining traction for the effort, and could create a rubber band effect that snaps back down to resume last week’s decline.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2674.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 2668.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2681.00 would be likely also to recover the 2677.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.