Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… A late move succeeds.
After avoiding it all night, support breaks through the open.
Overnight lows repeatedly stopped short of touching or breaking under yesterday afternoon’s 2799.50 bias environment low. 
Probing under it post-open wasn’t required. But probing under it post-open could form a session-long decline, since Wednesday’s close had trended up.
More so, a bearish WedEX could form by proxy, since yesterday was essentially an Inside Day.
The open did slide back under yesterday afternoon’s low, and not by a little, down to 2792.00. Its reaction attacked 2802.00, which is also resistance at this morning’s 2801.50 bias-down target. The bounce failed, and fresh lows have attacked 2791.00.
So, this is a session-long decline, with each timing window but one likely to probe its prior timing window’s low. WedEX has triggered bearish by proxy. And it’s a renewed bias-down environment.
Back above 2800.75 could extend into a corrective bounce up to 2806.00. It’s being probed now. Bounces are otherwise likely to fail, inflection points are likely to react down, and support tests are likely to fail. Back under 2798.00 would signal the decline had resumed.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Sound and fury, signifying nothing.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
A multi-session Ascending Triangle had broken sharply higher Tuesday. A very last-minute surge began testing the lower-end of the 2819.50-2823.00 likely bounce objective. Overnight action tested its upper end by 1 point. probing above Tuesday’s intraday range. Greeting Wednesday’s open back under the 2813.25 earlier Globex low formed a Globex-flip setup that is bearish for the morning. Which it was, producing a 30-point drop to 2783.25. A bounce into the bias environment’s exit attacked 2819.50, which reacted down to 2800.00 and ranged choppily sideways through the close. Any higher would have triggered a domino effect next targeting 2838.00. Any lower could have launched a retest of session lows, where oversold RSIs require an eventual retest.
Overnight action’s new info…
Wednesday afternoon’s choppy range ended by bouncing back toward session highs, through the 2812.00 cash session close up to 2816.00. Globex immediately dipped back down to and through 2812.00 on the way to Wednesday afternoon’s 2800.00 low. Firming into and out of Europe’s opens recovered to test and retest 2812.00, which has so far held, and is now reacting down to 2804.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
The Ascending Triangle pattern’s breakout Tuesday was likely false. So, the question remains, from where does it fail. Probably not from 2819.50-2823.00, which defined Wednesday’s highs. Not unless this morning’s open launches a downleg that extends under Wednesday’s lows without delay, which isn’t currently indicated. Gapping up or down — either above 2819.50 or under 2793.00, respectively — is also not indicated, but it would trigger WedEX by proxy. It’s possible for this morning to remain range bound, so we’ll take seriously any failed early attempt at trendnig.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2803.00 would be likely to trigger the 2808.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2811.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2819.50 would be likely to trigger the 2817.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2815.75 | 2817.50 |
| …would target | 2823.50 | 2825.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2806.00 | 2808.00 |
| …would target | 2799.50 | 2801.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday’s opening Globex-flip setup was productive. Exiting the open back under the 2813.25 earlier Globex low had isolated the overnight probe above Tuesday’s highs. The setup’s influence lasts either for the morning, or through the following morning. It lasted only through the morning, producing a drop to 2783.25.
The bias environment exit had retraced 61.8% of the post-open drop back up to 2801.50. That was extended to fresh session highs at 2819.50. Literally anything higher would have started a domino effect of testing the 2819.50-2823.00 upper-end, and breaking the 2824.00 overnight highs up to 2838.00. But a dip back down to 2800.00 avoided the dominoes, and the balance of the session ranged choppily sideways.
The morning’s low stopped optimistically short of touching the multi-session Ascending Triangle whose breakout Tuesday is likely to fail. The low left outstanding oversold RSIs that require a retest. That’s the market’s next objective, likely to extend lower, unless overnight action has returned to the dominoes.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Reversing down overnight essentially confirms the two intraday tests of last week’s highs had held, and that a top may have finished forming. Regardless, a second consecutive lower close on Thursday is still needed for confirmation.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Still hovering under the lower-end of the 1236.00-1241.00 bounce limit Wednesday means still not reacting back down. Attacking or testing the bounce limit’s upper-end and closing under its lower-end should launch a new downleg. Otherwise, early weakness could extend but must still close lower to confirm.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-lower ranging Wednesday essentially held around unchanged at 14.70. Closing back under 14.60 would now signal momentum reversing down to 14.35 and possibly lower.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday continued hovering narrowly above the 138-04 sell signal. Having avoided its break for four consecutive sessions, the potential has grown for extending the corrective bounce to 140-26.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Greeting Wednesday’s EIA report from a position of weakness broke to fresh lows at 69.63, on-track for fulfilling the minimum requirement for at least a third lower close.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The gap back up to 3.28 was tested Wednesday morning, and was still holding or being tested into the afternoon. Closing under 3.25 can now greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness.