Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2795.50 | 2797.50 |
| …would target | 2801.00 | 2803.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2784.50 | 2786.50 |
| …would target | 2779.50 | 2781.50 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Back on-track?
REMINDER: I’M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS UNTIL NOON.
Yesterday afternoon’s late slide was triggered by the Saudi Arabia story’s headlines. Despite dropping to 2745.00, the slide’s 2779.00 origin was still likely to be retested. At least, so long as relevant supports held, and preferably so long as the bias-up signal was renewed.
Rallying overnight into a range around 2758.50 broke higher at an accelerated pace to greet the open up to 2775.00. Fresh highs at 2776.50 and then 2783.25 easily renewed the 2764.75 bias-up target. Doubly renewed, actually, which isn’t very relevant anymore.
Meanwhile, trending higher relentlessly overnight often either finds post-open reinforcements or else counter-trend sponsorship. This morning found reinforcements. That doesn’t require extending higher relentlessly intraday, but it does create a position of strength likely to absorb a corrective dip. And without yet probing above the pre-10:15 high, a corrective dip would be triggered back under 2775.00 with potential to 2762.00-2765.00.
With or without a pullback, the Ascending Triangle pattern appears to be back on-track for producing an even higher corrective bounce. With too deep of a pullback, a retest of Thursday’s lows could be underway.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… & PROGRAMMING NOTE.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
PROGRAMMING NOTE: I’M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS TODAY BETWEEN 10:30-NOON ET.
Through the prior close…
Monday’s second consecutive “inside day” was nonetheless swinging widely. And the wide swings had been gradually probing intraday higher highs. Friday’s 2779.00 highs were touched just before entering the final hour, and just before Saudi Arabia headlines triggered another wide swing back down. The afternoon’s 2762.00 lower-end was on-track for containing the balance of the session. But the last 15 minutes collapsed back down to attack the morning’s 2751.25 low at the cash session close, and lower to 2749.00 at the futures close. An Ascending Triangle that had yet to probe its resistance was left with a break under its uptrending support.
Overnight action’s new info…
The drop initially extended to greet the Globex open at 2745.50, and then immediately began reversing back up to 2758.50. The balance of the night has essentially ranged choppily around 2758.50. A surge to 2761.50 reacted down sharply to 2753.00 by midnight, and fresh highs up to 2762.50 after Europe’s opens reacted down to 2755.50. Despite those wide swings, 2758.50 was just tested again, and minutes later the highs are now being pierced by 3 ticks.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
To the degree that yesterday’s late drop was triggered by the non-financial Saudi news, it’s likely to be retraced back to its 2799.00 origin. Perhaps higher, to trigger the Ascending Triangle’s upside. Its upside is currently threatened by having closed under yesterday morning’s 2751.50-2754.00 lows, which is the last touch of the pattern’s uptrending support. Gapping open back above those lows and extending higher can reject yesterday’s late break, and put the pattern’s upside back on-track. The pattern’s downside would otherwise be triggered by closing back under Friday’s 2732.00-2735.00 lows.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2759.75 would be likely to trigger the 2757.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2765.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2764.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2752.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2755.00 | 2757.00 |
| …would target | 2762.75 | 2764.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2745.75 | 2747.75 |
| …would target | 2737.75 | 2739.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Suddenly, in the midst of mutli-session collapse, Friday produced an “inside day.” It session was contained entirely within Thursday’s range. So, Friday’s range was already narrower than any one of the declining sessions that preceded it.
Yet, Monday produce another inside day, even narrower than Friday.
Inside days don’t offer much predictive value, especially not without trending intraday. And Monday didn’t trend intraday. Its initial dip held the morning’s 2751.75 bias-down target. Its session highs repeatedly attacked and tested 2777.00 resistance. Dropping from the range’s upper-end to its lower-end through the close got to 2749.00, but not until after the close when its test was irrelevant.
An Ascending Triangle had begun forming that could still break higher. But breaking higher at this stage would be suspicious without actually gapping up above the pattern’s upper-end. Extending down without delay to at least retest Thursday’s 2712.00 low is no less likely.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.