Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Oct 4, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday is usually the week’s busiest for econ reports. This week’s isn’t entirely empty, but its relatively few reports are not reliable for influencing price action.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2937.25 | 2941.50 |
| …would target | 2943.25 | 2947.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2930.50 | 2935.00 |
| …would target | 2924.25 | 2928.75 |
| Signal status: STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Everything old is renewed again.
Gap up extends.
The overnight recovery back up to yesterday’s 2936.00 highs had formed an Ascending Triangle. It began breaking higher before the open, fluctuating narrowly around the 2939.25 bias-up target. Post-open action fluctuated a little more widely around 2939.25, but ultimately resolved up to 2944.75.
That’s within 2 ticks of the renewed bias-up target, essentially neutralizing it. However, it’s still a structural attraction from the high session’s gap up. And being within its orbit makes its actual test likely.
That may have to wait, as a reaction down is attacking 2938.00 as support. Any lower would target 2933.25-2934.00. Meanwhile, back above the 2942.00 area should resume the rally, now targeting 2947.50-2950.00.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Disappearing downside traction.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s open was essentially unchanged at the 2928.00-2929.50 range, fully recovering an overnight probe under Monday’s 2922.50 low down to 2917.50. This basis for an Isolation setup was confirmed by avoiding fresh lows intraday. The pre-open recovery extended higher to touch 2936.00 at noon. The noon hour’s 5-point dip was recovered entirely through the bias environment, but no higher. Instead the pattern collapsed back down to the 2924.00 post-open low, reacting up to 2930.00 into the close. Sellers gained traction by entering the final hour at fresh afternoon lows, confirmed through the proxy window.
Overnight action’s new info…
Nothing has suggested that sellers gained traction. After correcting yesterday’s late bounce by 61.8% down to 2926.00, a surge attacked yesterday’s 2936.00 highs well before midnight. An Ascending Triangle has formed from ranging sideways through Europe’s opens.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Yesterday afternoon’s sellers gained traction, and their reward at some point would probe under 2924.00. The first two possible windows have passed, leaving this morning, which isn’t at all indicated. The setup is conflicted with the Double Top at Tuesday’s highs, which is generally a position of strength that enables recovering from a reaction down. And it already corrected 61.8% to 2924.00. Gapping up above Tuesday’s highs will take priority over any attraction below. Similarly, any attraction below will take priority if Tuesday’s highs hold through a relevant timing window. Tuesday’s Isolation setup now allows a temporary probe under its intraday lows, but that limitation will become irrelevant if the Isolation setup’s reward of fresh highs were to develop first.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2937.00 would be likely to trigger the 2933.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2930.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2928.25 | 2933.00 |
| …would target | 2834.50 | 2939.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2921.50 | 2925.25 |
| …would target | 2914.25 | 2919.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | . | |
| NEW: BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.